2008 Tour de France Stage 7 ; Brioude - Aurillac 159.0 km Friday 11th July

limerickman

Stage 7

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

guncha

This stage looks interesting. They have two 2nd cat climbs and 3rd cat. climb (1,7km @ 9,9%) 9km before finish. In Giro they tried to attack in similar stages... final climb is quite steep... maybe some attacks can happen here as well...

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TheDarkLord

If the climb is too steep, then it is difficult to make attacks stick, or gain a significant time advantage over your opponents.

jhuskey

Depends on the attacker. I have seen a lot of big time gaps gained on steep climbs by non-GC's .

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Powerful Pete

Agree with jhuskey here. It may be more difficult to make an attack stick, but you usually succeed in making a few of the big boys explode and lose big in just a few kms if things work out right.

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jhuskey

I know this is not a flat stage but it looks to me like some of the sprinters might be able to hang in for a run a the end.
They may not be first across the line if a break works but should be able to sprint for points.

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Sobriety is over rated!

Anticyclone

Be interesting to see what Team High Road do. The third category climb looks a bit steep for Cavendish to get over with the main group and he will only have nine kilometres to catch up. Ciolek may be able to stay in touch and go for the sprint but if it all comes back together then they may simply hand the win to Zabel, Hushovd or Freire and allow them a big bundle of points. Also Colombia will have a lot of work to do in the tour if they are going to work for Kirchen in the overall and points and Cav on the flat (depends how long he stays in though). This may mean that a break full of people way down on GC will be allowed (by them) to stay away and it will be up to Milram, Credit Agricole and Rabobank to chase. This may happen but they may try to put some riders into the break in case it doesnt come back together. Velits seemed to go well in the Dauphine but didnt push it hard yesterday - maybe he will be sent down the road tomorrow?

Maybe Voeckler to be in the break to get koM points. Probably a few other French riders trying to get their moment of glory?

TheDarkLord

I'm not so sure about that. The profile of tomorrow's stage:



They are surely going to be dropped on the cat 2 climbs. But the climbs are relatively short, and maybe they can catch up on the descent.

jhuskey

I think they can and a cat 2 is not that bad. It is also a fairly short stage. A lot depends on the pace at the front.

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Sobriety is over rated!

TheDarkLord

The climbs today were also cat 2, and you saw what happened, although it was an uphill finish today.

jhuskey

That's the difference an uphill finish and how fast the pace was at the end.

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Sobriety is over rated!

Crankyfeet

The sprinters may not get dropped... but it's going to add a lot of lactic acid to their muscles as they try to stay with the bunch... which will affect their ability to sprint at the end. They're more likely to be dropped because they want to save themselves for the next stage. Both Cancellara and Pozzato made sure they coasted today in prep I think. Though I don't know why Pozzato didn't finish further than 7 minutes off, with the rest of the sprinters and Cancellara? Maybe he fancied himself in Stage 6 and did crack?? Highly unlikely.

Freire is obviously capable of punching a sprint after some climbs and might consider it worth busting his gut so that he can be sprinting at the finish without McEwen, Cavendish, and Hunter. Hushovd is a bit of an unknown. He can climb a bit, and may go for the points at the end, though I think it's unlikely.

Realistically... the pure sprinters shouldn't be a factor IMO. My guess at the contenders would be Pozzato, Freire, Valverde, Kirchen, Schumacher and Cancellara. With Voigt, Ricco, Sanchez, Pineau, Wegmann and Sylvain Chavanel as outside bets. Cancellara looks to be slightly off peak form so far though. This might affect his confidence breaking off the front in the final kilometre. I think he was shocked at how easily Pozzato reeled him in on Stage 2... and probably a little down after the ITT.

Evans will likely be within a few seconds of Valverde (obviously), wherever Piti places, so he could place if Valverde wins.

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Grater

I think a break stays away today. Columbia will want a rest day to preserve Kirchen thus won't want to do any chasing. I think they also may put Siutsou in the break.

Chavannel will make the break - he wanted to win yesterday - he's my tip to win today.

Grater

Anyone of Flecha, Arroyo, Chavanel, Voeckler, Siutsou, Gadret, Arveson, Wegmenn, De la feunte

Flecha - will probably try a break.

Arroyo - my outsider for the KOM jersey.

Chavanel - wanted a win yesterday, I can see him trying today.

Voeckler - if Chavanel is in the break, then so will Voeckler - I see both of
them battling KOM points today!

Siutsou - i'm riding this guy to be in a break every mountain stage until he is. hincapie and lovkvist can protect Kirchen today and siutsou knows his best chance of a stage win is today in a medium mountain stage. Columbia want stage wins and putting someone in the break today means that the onus is on the other teams to do the pace setting. Probably not today - probably later on, but still have him in my selections as he will be in a break one day.

Gadret - has had success in the past - will try today

Wegmenn - has a history aswell of breaks.

Arveson - it will either be voigt or arveson and arveson is down too much. so it could be him.

De la Fuente - will try something