Will we see a climber win the Green Jersey this year?

Grater

Very possible. With only 2 more chances of a bunch sprint until some hilly stages, it's quite possible that the green jersey will go to a non sprinter this year. In stage 2, the chase was nearly screwed up. Last night it was. The peloton couldn't even organise a fight in a fight club at the moment. How will a sprinter take green?

1 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia 69 pts
2 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Crédit Agricole 64
3 Oscar Freire Gomez (Spa) Rabobank 55
4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 49
5 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Milram 46
6 Samuel Dumoulin (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 43
7 Robert Hunter (RSA) Barloworld 40
8 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Bouygues Telecom 39
9 William Frischkorn (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30 38
10 Romain Feillu (Fra) Agritubel 36
11 Paolo Longo Borghini (Ita) Barloworld 34
12 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Française des Jeux 32
13 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Silence - Lotto 31
14 Leonardo Duque (Col) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 27
15 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Saunier Duval - Scott 27
16 Gerald Ciolek (Ger) Team Columbia 26
17 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 25
18 Martin Elmiger (Swi) AG2R La Mondiale 25
19 Riccardo Riccò (Ita) Saunier Duval - Scott 22
20 Martijn Maaskant (Ned) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30 21
21 Iouri Trofimov (Rus) Bouygues Telecom 20
22 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 19
23 Matteo Carrara (Ita) Quick Step 19
24 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 18
25 Geoffroy Lequatre (Fra) Agritubel 18
26 Filippo Pozzato (Ita) Liquigas 18
27 Jimmy Casper (Fra) Agritubel 18
28 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 17
29 Robert Förster (Ger) Gerolsteiner 17
30 David Millar (GBr) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30 16
31 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 16
32 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 16
33 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Team Columbia 16
34 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 15
35 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 13
36 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 12

If a bunch sprint doesn't eventulate in the two stages after the time trial, then its safe to say a climber will grab the green jersey. At this point in time Kirchen is a possibility to hold it all the way to paris and Valverde is a chance. Also Evans. These riders will be up there on the climbs. Chavannel, and Cobo will be in breakaways. Even if stage 5 and 6 end up in bunch sprints, Kirchen and Valverde have enough points and will both be up there.

By now we usually see the sprinters with a handy lead in the points classfication but due to stage 1 - not the sprinters fault and stage 2 - which should have been a bunch sprint, and stage 3, it's a possibility the green jersey will go to a climber. It would be funny if the same rider wins yellow and green come paris. haha.

Crankyfeet

There's more flat stages later on in the race.

Having said that... Kirchen has a good chance.

__________________

Anticyclone

More points for him today...

Grater

That's true but looking at things so far, it's getting more likely that breaks succeed and after hard mountains, it increases. With Kirchen likely having yellow come the weekend, Columbia won't be doing any pace setting.

thunder

kirchen is not a climber, he is a puncheur, he has finished 5th in a flat bunch kick in the Tour. He is yet to finish 5th in a selective mtn stage not via breakaway.

limerickman

Kichen is having a superb season thus far.

His climbing ability has improved - we saw his ability to tough it out with climber/roadmen in the Fleche (where he held his own with noted climbers like Evans, Cunego etc).
Fleche being a one day race is different to the corrosive climbing effect of days in the Alps/Pyrennees - but he might be just able to hold on against the other green jersey favourites like Hushovd.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Eldrack

I think this years route makes the green jersey more interesting than normal. Kirchen is a threat for it, but I don't think he'll quite win it. I reckon Hushovd will take it be he'll have to fight for every single point possible out on the road, intermediate sprints included.

limerickman

I think you're right - I think Hushovd is favourite for the points jersey.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Grater

This tour will be the first for the man. Tonight maybe. His form in Switzerland and this year has been awesome. He will prove that point wrong tonight and over the next 2 weeks.

Runitout

He didn't seem that interested in defending green jersey points last night. Seems he has bigger fish to fry.

__________________
And saying so to some
Means nothing; others it leaves
Nothing to be said.

Grater

I was meaning your comment towards him not finishing well in mountain stages at the tour.

Anyway he is targetting yellow and a top 5 finish.

I still reckon that the green jersey this year goes to a non sprinter!

Hitchy

yeah?...you wanna try reading the rules....not all stages have the same points available...the points are significantly weighted toward the stages where the sprinters are likely to dominate. I'd be willing to bet it ends on up on the back of a sprinter

Eldron

Agreed.

Jerseys are always confusing in the first week of the Tour while the points/seconds are close and a bit confusing for the uninitiated (not aimed at you Grater).

How many times have you "will Chris Boardman keep yellow to Paris?" or "can Hincapie can win the tour?" or "will Voekler beat Lance this year?".