Milan-San Remo

Grater

Who is your tip?

Freire or Gilbert for me.

There is a small climb 9km from the end. If a break survives, then Gilbert will be there. If they do manage to catch up, then the inform Freire should take it.

Frigo's Luggage

I think the Poggio is kind of long for Gilbert. I was going to tip Ricco but it looks as if he might not be racing. Freire might be a good pick if it comes down in a small bunch.

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We are all made of stars.

The Double Zero

Freire would be the hot favorite, but if the big boys do get over the climbs, Petacchi seems to be in a bit of form. I'm not sure if McEwan is riding this but if he is look out for him, He has been training specifically for March this summer altering his normal program to be in peak form now.

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Nothin's faster than the Double Zero.

Crankyfeet

I'm going to take a flier on Pippo Pozzato. I'm assuming he's in the field?...

Bro Deal

Watch Cancellara power off the front in the last couple of klicks. That guy can do everything this year.

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"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

Crankyfeet

I gotta feeling you might be right, for whatever that's worth. The climbs won't bother him... but he needs to get off the front before the last 250 doesn't he.

thunder

he can win a sprint in a classic in the right circumstances,

All those guys are fast.

Pozzato has beaten Bennati at the Tour in a slow speed starting sprint.

Pozzato beat Paolini and Davis at Hamburg.

Cancellara beat Boonen in an intermediate sprint in about 2003. Cancellara has come 6th in about the 7th stage in 2004 when he was riding at Fassa Bortolo in a bunch kick. Ahead of Boonen. MCewen beat Backstedt.

Cancellara needs a very long sprint, a strength sprint, and one that does not need explosive acceleration. Freire v Cancellara two man sprint from 250 metres, both in the wind from the start, it is 50/50. Shorter one, Freire wins 9 out of 10. Cancellara needs to get lucky in a sprint.

poster "stever" on DP said he cannot win Flanders nor San Remo. I think he can win both. I think he can win San Remo like Pozzato did 2 years back, Pozzato marked a move on the Poggio by Ballan, and they came back to the bunch. This with 2 kms to go. When they came back, they stalled, and Pippo jumped again.

I see no reason why Cancellara cannot win with an attack after the Poggio, or atleast go with an attack. If there is only 20 riders left after the Poggio and the bunch splinters, there is no organisation to chase a long rider, and someone, a puncheur like Gilbert and Cancellara who can put out 600 watts in that minute, can get away, because if they have 100 metre gap with 2 km to go, and only 20 riders left, 10 riders have to give 100% effort and swap off on the front. They gotta bury themselves to catch them.

Like Pippo, they will not catch them, because there is no organisation. No team has 4 or 5 riders left, who will bury themselves for a team leader. All look at one another, and wait for someone to sacrifice their chances to pull back the leader(s).

Dekker won like Pippo in this manner, his break getting caught, and going again, about 2004 or 2005 in Paris Tours.

classic1

Friere.

thunder

Freire is just default status.

Like Zabel circa 2000.

Crankyfeet

Thunder - a bit off subject - but how would you rate these road racing pro sprinters if they decided to focus on pure track sprinting? Would they be up there in a pure sprint with the world's best... or are they only the best sprinters, who can get through a couple of hundred kilometres of race first?

Bro Deal

I thought Flanders was one of Cancellara's goals for this year.

Supposedly he lost weight so he can climb better.

__________________
"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

thunder

dont ask me, I am the armchair expert.

But I think Danny Clark went ok in keirins. Boonen and Steels started as 1km track champions. Hushovd is a beast, may not have the explosivity. Cavendish might be a chance if he put on 15 kgs. I think he won the scratch race sprint pretty easily.

A young Australian Leigh Howard had the chance to pick either track sprint, or track endurance/road. His junior and senior pursuit times are better than Mcgee at the same age, and he blew the doors of Ryan Bayley in a few wheelraces here as a 15/16 yo. Amazing. He also was winning tts in the national junior road beating guys like Travis Meyer who in turn has beaten Jack Bobridge who finished 4th in junior worlds tt.

Looking at a guy like Greipel, he looks like Theo Bos on a diet of 1000 miles a week.

You would get a few who could do both. 2000 gold medallist Marty Nothstein thought he could crossover to the road and go to Europe, but he dropped about 10-12 kgs, and the most he ever won was a NYC criterium for Navigators. Few parking lot crits in domestic US.

So, the guy has to be extraordinarily talented and have a 5 hour energy system. Lots dont. Brett Aitken, 93 VO2, Miles Olman, Mark Jamieson, guys who have great talent on the velodrome, and their lab numbers would be off the chart, their energy system is not adequate to handle the road in Europe.

There is a corollary. Ofcourse. Oxygen vector techniques and strength and recovery hormones can turn mules into racehorses, and these guys have elite potential to begin with.

The Double Zero

Bring on the Leigh Howard love, he is going to be frightening!

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Nothin's faster than the Double Zero.

thunder

JonoL beats him regularly in 2 up sprints down Geelong way