Basso's domination

nath1

Hi all, do you think that Basso will have his own way at the tour de France like he had in the Giro. I realise what he did in the Giro was awesome, he rode with inteligence and supreme confidence, but i cannot help thinking that because there were quite a few key riders commited to other races that it may have been a slightly easier job to control the peloton than lets say at the Tour De France. Like i say im not taking anything away from his victory, but he did make it look quite easy. To me there was not half the tension that you get at the TDF, but that may just be a personnal opinion. Do you think that Ulrich, Valverde, Vino and the like can make things difficult for him. I personnaly would like to think that Rassmussen could steal lots of time in the mountains like last year, and perhaps make an unatainable lead. It seemed that last year Ras was so strong that not even the likes of Armstrong could not go with the relentless pace set by him, perhaps he still clearly rememberd the mistake he made chasing Pantani, who knows? Whats your opinions cheers

Catabolic_Jones

There was an interview with Rasmussen recently on cyclingnews where he lamented the Tour's parcours this year. There simply isn't enough in the way of mountain-top finishes to really let him take time.

I think the only guys who could possibly challenge Basso who weren't at the Giro are Valverde and Vinokourov. However, both of them have major question marks over them. Valverde has not proven himself consistent enough in a Grand Tour to challenge in the GC; nor is he a time-trialist to be feared. I would rule him out for the podium this year in Paris based on those two observations. However, that said, I would not be surprised if he did come top 5.

As for Vinokourov, he definitely could win the Tour, if he could learn to ride more conservatively. It's not impossible to believe that he could do that with Saiz overseeing his campaign. However, we now know that Saiz is out of the picture; add that to the sponsorship instabilities at LS and I think you have to rule Vino out.

I would look to Valverde, Vino and Rasmussen for stage victories, but not for #1 GC.

I think Basso's only real competitor this year is Ullrich. With such a high volume of TT km's he could contend; he could challenge Basso. Both teams are very strong. I think it will come down to how much each rider can minimise the damage in their weaknesses. If Ullrich can hold Basso's wheel in the mountains, then the Tour is his; if Basso can limit his losses in the TT, then I think the Tour is his.

My dark horse would be Savoldelli. I think the Tour is absolutely perfect for him this year. Add that to the fact he didn't -- because he couldn't -- go too deep in the Giro; he could contend. It all depends on DC's strategy. If they put everything behind him, I think he could do it. But I expect them to play more for stage wins, and to support 2 or 3 riders. I imagine they will look more like the T-Mobile of recent years.

__________________
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.

jcjordan

Plus he will loose to much time in the time trials



If Valverde can get the team support he could do reasonably well. I agree though podium maybe, but not the top step.



The problem with Vinokoourov is that he is to much of a loner and does not know how to use his team to conserve his strength, the result is that he has a great day followed by a terrible day. Add to this the fact that his team is currently imploding and its possible that they will not even be allowed to start.



I still don't think that Ullrich has the mental focus and determination to actually win the tour. Personally i reckon that Basso is going to do a Armstrong and blitz him on the first mountain and that will be the end of the race.


Hopefully he can get beyond the allergy problems he should do quite well. If the DC decides that they are not in the money for a podium then he might decide to just go for stages. Discovery does not have the riders to compete for either the green or poka-dot jerseys with any real chance to win it overall.

__________________
"Pain does not last, bones heal and chicks dig scars"

superdanuk

Basso is the favourite but i do wonder how much the giro took out of him. If he starts the tour in the same form as he showed at the giro then the tour is his to lose.

The course suits ullrich but you wonder if mentally he is prepared for it. for me savoldelli is going to be a strong contender with the course set up like it is.
still i think basso will win the tour he's a class act

Powerful Pete

I believe [hope?] that Basso will win the Tour. I do no think that he was anywhere near 100% during the Giro, and that he has quite a bit of gas left for the TdF.

Having said that, I believe that kaiser jan will be a threat. He does have the staying power - he has won the Tour before and has podiumed umpteen times!

__________________
De Rosa Planet
Campagnolo Per Sempre!
PAOLO BETTINI CAMPIONE DEL MONDO x 2!

jhuskey

Ok, my two cents: Basso targeted the Giro and that takes a lot of concentation...so can he recover? Yes ,to a degree,but will it be enough?
Her now has the potential TT skills and has had the climbing skills and has come of age.
Jan is concentrating on the TDF but has had some knee problems.
I believe he has the motivation as I know for sure he has several plans for the future and I believe he very much wants to win this race.
His decision is which race to run this month,he would prefer the TDS but it has some tougher climbs that could diminish his chances for recovery. He needs to choose smartly as to train and recover concurrently
I believe he is playing it smart from a strategic standpoint.
Vino is a hell of a competitor and faces the same prospects as Jan,he is 32 and his future is limited.
I still have never seen any consistency in him in a multi-stage race but this is probably his last chance.
Another question is will Rasmussen align himself with one of these guys or maybe another.
The are also a few others that face possible retirement after this year and may be lurking to make a final statement.
Maybe I should take off the month of July so I won't miss a pedal stroke.

__________________
Sobriety is over rated!

lwedge

I think Basso has enough in the tank to be a real factor in TDF and it will probably be a real shoot-out between the two. Valverde will be interesting but I don't think he is mentally focused on GC and he will need some help from other riders. The real X factor here (IMO) is Landis, he seems to be on another level this year.

As far as Savo goes, I wonder how well GH is going to be able to work for him ?

Lw

__________________
If your traveling to the LakeTahoe, Apple Hill, Folsom area ? Then check out Charles Lee's site for some great information on rides, maps and events in this Northern California area. .
http://www.beautifulvista.com
Great wine !
http://www.chevalierwinery.com/

Powerful Pete

I believe we are over-estimating Vino. He is a great rider, but has demonstrated that he always has a jour sans in the TdF, which takes him out of contention.

I think Valverde is still a bit young... in interviews he states he is going to the Tour for a stage and a top five placing is his greatest ambition. He rates himself as part of the coming generation (and not the present one) of GT riders...

I also wonder about Savoldelli...

__________________
De Rosa Planet
Campagnolo Per Sempre!
PAOLO BETTINI CAMPIONE DEL MONDO x 2!

jhuskey

I agree on Vino he is never consistent enough for GC contention.

__________________
Sobriety is over rated!

superdanuk

yeah vinos traditional bad day in the mountains will do him in. Its going to be between basso and ullrich and maybe landis if he can hold it together in the mountains.

Powerful Pete

Is Landis going to race the Tour de Suisse with Kaiser Jan, so that we can see if he is in any shape at all?

__________________
De Rosa Planet
Campagnolo Per Sempre!
PAOLO BETTINI CAMPIONE DEL MONDO x 2!

limerickman

As others have said here - I too was very impressed with Basso's riding in the
Giro 2006.
He never appeared to panic and his strength was self-evident.
Also his team literally blasted every other cyclist and team off the road.

Did Basso invest everything in winning the Giro? The grapevine tells me that winning the Giro this year was Basso's number 1 objective and that he has adopted a "let's see how the TDF goes" approach to LeTour.

But make no mistake to win a GT by over 9 mins is a superb feat.

For the TDF there will be several more contenders for overall GC there - than there were at the Giro.
Therefore the pressure to perform at the TDF for Basso, combined with what the Giro may have taken out of him - will make the TDF a more closely fought race.

In respect of Valverde - I think this lad has real prospects of greatness : i think he's a marvellous rider.
I thought he roade a great 2005 TDF and it was a pity to see him finish because of injury.

In terms of Basso, I think JU will be a factor and I think that the race might end up as a battle between the two.
Landis could play a part but we don't know how he will perform as this is his first TDF as team leader.
Vino? Hard to know with Vino : could he hold his form for 21days? History says he usually has a very bad that costs him dearly.

My guess is the podium will be Basso, Ullrich and either Vino/Landis.
But I'm not guessing in which order!

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

bomber

I thought Vino's team had their invite withdrawn?

limerickman

maybe it was - I don't know to be honest.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.