Le Tour: Week Three

tcklyde

It's an interesting last week for the Tour. The last major mountain top finish comes on Sunday. This leaves four stages before the ITT, none of which are ideally suited to the sort of attacks that put in big time for GC contenders. The Col d'Aubisque is nothing to ignore, but the summit comes at only half way through the stage. What can we expect on the GC fight over these four stages before the time trial? Surely it will test the teams!

__________________
Harry

guncha

Maybe in stage 18 (Albi - Mende) some action is possible as there is 3rd and 2nd category climbs in last 10 kilometres.
Col d'Aubisque - in 2003 after a second rest say Tyler won a stage with a breakway and profile was preatty similar (stage 16, Pau - Bayonne). Tyler was 8min 30 sec down in GC before this stage and Lance let him go. Maybe some of pre-race favorites who have failed to challenge Lance might try to do something similar but I doubt GC leaders will attack...

__________________
Why am I still a fan of dopers sport?

gntlmn

The peloton really melted down today, a testament to the blistering pace they set before the rest day yesterday. Finally, we see they are indeed human.

Valverde is impressive. I'm beginning to think it will be Popovych and Valverde battling it out next year in the Tour. Michael Rasmussen is a great new-kid-on-the-block climber too. He's impressed me with his endurance and speed in the mountains.

whiteboytrash

There is a lot out there who feel he still can lose..... hmmmmmm.... we will see.........

http://www.procycling.com/news.aspx?ID=1429

Has Armstrong won already?

That is the question that L’Equipe put to some of the biggest names in the sport, and their answers don't make for happy reading for Lance's rivals.

A survey by L’Equipe has revealed that opinion is still split over whether Lance Armstrong has a seventh Tour title already in the bag after just two mountain stages. Eddy Merckx and Laurent Fignon are among those who believe that the 33-year-old Texan will cruise to victory on the Champs Elysées on July 24, while Phonak directeur sportif Jacques Michaud and Domina Vacanze counterpart Gianluigi Stanga yesterday both advised against writing off Armstrong’s rivals.

Armstrong began today’s 12th stage to from Briançon to Digne Les Bains just 38 seconds ahead of the Dane Michael Rasmussen, but with both recent history and the form book suggesting that this margin is destined to grow. Rasmussen’s lack of time trialling pedigree alone is enough to convince some commentators that the Rabobank rider poses no threat to Armstrong’s bid for a magnificent seventh. In the only time trial that Rasmussen rode before abandoning the recent Giro d’Italia, the Dane lost in excess of six minutes to stage winner David Zabriskie on a 45km course. In the opening time trial of the Tour, Rasmussen conceded 3-12, again to Zasbriskie, over just 19km.

The fallibility of T-Mobile’s three leaders, Jan Ullrich, Andreas Kloeden and Alexandre Vinokourov makes another persuasive case for Armstrong. French cycling luminaries Cyrille Guimard and Fignon explained why in today’s L’Equipe.

“Too many cooks spoil the broth, and three is two too many,” said Guimard, famous for guiding Bernard Hinault to four Tour de France victories with the Renault team. “In Grenoble [on Monday, the Tour’s first rest-day – Ed.], Vinokourov avoided the press so that he wouldn’t have to answer questions about the three and their possible conflict of interests. There was something unhealthy brewing in the T-Mobile camp, some palpable tension which Vinokourov ended up paying for.”

Fignon’s criticism focused on Ullrich, currently lying a disappointing ninth, 4-02 down on GC. “The only time Ullrich managed to worry Armstrong, he wasn’t with T-Mobile [he was with Bianchi, in 2003 - Ed]. That can’t be a coincidence. He rides so little that he puts enormous pressure on himself. What surprises me is his inability to pursue new avenues.”

Five-time Tour winner, Merckx added simply “there’s no point slamming the stable door after the horse has bolted. Lance is by far the strongest.”

In the opposition camp, the dissenters (or eternal optimists?) were led by Phonak’s Michaud. He claimed that he had been “watching Lance for two or three days, and his eyes don’t have their usual sparkle.” If that sounded suspiciously like clutching at straws, Michaud elaborated. “We’ll be able to assess his resistance in the marathon stage in the Pyrenees [the 205.5km 15th stage from Lézat-sur-Lezè to Saint-Lary-Soulan – Ed.]. Not before. Let’s not forget that he’ll soon be 34. He can’t keep improving.”

Domina Vacanze’s Stanga pointed to another factor, the likely arrival of the kind of asphyxiating heat which affected Armstrong so badly in Cap Découverte in 2003, in the time trial won by Ullrich. “On the climb up to Courchevel, something very significant happened: the temperature fell from 28 to 15 degrees, helping Armstrong,” Stanga pointed out. “Armstrong prefers cold weather. It will be torrid in the Pyrenees.” Finally, L’Equipe quotes Stanga’s compatriot Ivan Basso, who in the past has been admitting defeat to Armstrong even before the Tour has begun. “I say to myself that it might not be over. I’m certainly not resigned, anyway,” said Basso.

With Basso just 2-40 down on Armstrong on general classification, frankly we’d be alarmed if the Italian had said anything else.

SteveR2

Unfortunatley, Rasmussen is 31 so he doesn't have too much time left.

spockroyaltea

it seems to me that saturday, sunday and TT (and maybe stage 18) will be the only defining moments left in this tour.
it isnt over yet, but i wouldnt want to be 5 minutes down at this point.

__________________

Catabolic_Jones

One cannot forget Cunego, as well. And Rasmussen will require at least 2 years, if not more, to develop skills as a time-triallist. I would give him less time, if he were not so poor at the discipline.

__________________
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.