Stage 18: Friday. Ullrich/Kloden to Close Gap on Basso?

gntlmn

Take a look at the profile on Friday's Stage 18. Notice that it is a long climb followed by a long downhill with a few intermittent, shorter uphills. It looks like mostly downhill into the finish line in Lons-le-Saunier.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/200...=stages/stage18

If Ullrich and Kloden can team up and breakaway from Basso, it might be Ullrich's last chance to get to the podium in Paris. They would be a formidable pair in the downhills.

Do you think this is possible? Team USPS will still be keeping a close eye on the duo to keep them from threatening overall GC. The question is, will the duo be able to drop Basso even though USPS will end up on their wheels. The breakaway group would end up being pretty big.

How good of a downhiller is Basso? Ullrich's excellent. I don't know about Kloden, but I don't see Ullrich leaving him behind.

Ullefan

Someone could launch an attack from the Faucille, but why waste energy before the time trial? Bettini will go for it, so will rasmussen and other nobodies who want to stage, but why not virenque? another boring day for GC riders, I don't think it will be a bunch sprint. Why do GC riders always ride conservatively on a stage like this? They could still win the tour if they tried, just because there aren't any major mountains doesn't mean you can't gain time.

gntlmn

I don't know if Jan's mentality will be whether he will be wasting energy on Friday. He needs to bridge just a little more of the gap so that a very good showing on Saturday will then get him on the podium Sunday. If he takes it from Kloden and not Basso, that's not going to be better for his team. But if they both take a big chunk out of Basso, that would be the best for both. It would help Kloden to get 2nd overall in the TdF and also for Jan to get 3d. Given that USPS cannot afford this duo to have a long breakaway, it might be just as you say, a waste of energy. But if they can catch Basso distracted, they might pull it off.

Actually, Kloden is not going to be very motivated to work on Friday because I think he can bridge the 1:02 gap between himself and Basso in the Saturday TT. But Jan is back 3:59 from Basso, and I don't think he can bridge that gap without first getting a little closer on Friday. I think we will see an attack by Ullrich on Friday whether or not Kloden chooses to follow him.

Salsa Rider

Where did you get the idea that Jan is a good descender?? He almost blew a corner today, and at least twice before in the TDF has ended up with grass stains on his jersey because of his down-hilling. Dont get me wrong, I'm routing for a 6th time to the 2nd spot for Jan, but a descender?? MMMmm not-so-much

musette

Very aggressive riding has to take place on the part of T-Mobile for JU to podium (as 3d). Therefore, every available opportunity has to be taken. T-Mobile has to just keep driving the pace, and, even if Basso does not get dropped, Basso will be slightly weaker for ITT (as would JU, Kloden, but they might be better able to compensate).

tighttop

I believe that Ullrich has got a very strong chance of taking 2nd place tomorrow. If you look at the results from the 1st time trial last year Gaillac - Cap' Découverte, Ullrich beat Basso by exactly 6 minutes over 47km. This years time trial is over 55km and on similar terrain. Although we are told Basso has improved his TT, will it be enough??? - i'm not so sure and would not at all be surprised if Ullrich fought back to second place.