Predictions for La Mongie?

1x1

Who do you thing will win Stage 12? Liggett is predicting Mayo. Personally, I'd like to see Hamilton on the attack but think is more likley to mark LA through the mountains.

birdman23

I think Mayo will pull LA and TH to the top, in that order.

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J.Burns

Armstrongs first Attack for me and put in a cracking performance, wouldnt write Verenque off either

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iBanesto

heras wins!

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gntlmn

Ullrich has said that he will attack early. He didn't say on what day, but Friday is the first killer stage where a strong GC rider can blow open a huge lead. So I'm going to believe that Jan is ready to make a run for it on Friday early on. I think Lance and the other GC contenders will try to counterattack. From there, it depends partly on the weather as to who I expect to win.

musette

My estimate (with first first, etc.):

LA
Heras
Mayo

musette

I still think LA will win La Mongie, but he is quoted after today's stage as noting.

"I think Saturday (Stage 13) suits me better. Tomorrow is better suited to a smaller more explosive climber... I don't think what happens tomorrow is any indication of what will happen on Plateau de Beille and other days."

He's only engaging in Psych-ops in case Mayo wins tomorrow. I think LA will attack tomorrow when he, Mayo and Heras are the only ones not dropped.

tighttop

After watching todays stage i'm convinced that LA is on top form. The way he was sprinting out the stage at the end with O'Grady, Zabel, Hushvod etc was very impressive.


My view is that tomorrow will be very similar the the 2002 stage which finished in La Mongie. Remember how Postal just set a hard tempo and dropped everyone off the back except for Beloki? This time Beloki will be replaced Ullrich and Heras by one of Azvedo/Beltran/Rubiera, but the outcome will be the same - LA to win by 8 secs.

I think Ulrich will try to attack, but LA will counter.

I know Mayo will also attack, but i'm sure that both he & Hamilton are both suffering too much to be effective.
I would dearly love Ullrich to win #2, but i'm starting to feel that LA is on course for #6......we shall see?

DeRosa_AV

I'm going for Heras, I would have said Mayo but he didn't look to good on some of the climbs on stage 10.

musette

LA predicts on his fan site that Mayo will attack:

"Thoughts on Mayo attacking soon: 'He’ll attack in the Pyrenees for sure. He’ll attack Friday, he’ll attack tomorrow, because La Mongie is closer to the Basque Country than Plateau de Beille and that mountain will, the trees and landscape will be green but the roads will be orange with the supporters so, he will go tomorrow. At least I hope so.'
How nasty is Saturday’s stage:
'It’s very nasty, it’s very nasty. (Joking) I think they should take it out. It’s a violation of our human rights. But I love it.'"

patch70

Hard to see anyone other than Mayo winning it. Heras second.

Ky Wildcat

I think LA will wait tomorrow and conserve energy for an attack on Saturday. Lance will go if Ullrich or Hamilton attacks but I only see Heras or Mayo or Basso attacking because their time is running out. Plus we are close to the Basque region which will Motivate the whole Euskatel team to attack for Mayo. Watch out for Levi too....

Frihed89

Kiss off Heras. There are at least 5-6 other mountain riders who stand a better chance. My guess for today - A Basque will win it. But there's a long pretty flat ride to the first climb.

My own, kill Lance strategy, would be for a coordinated, multi-team haul-ass sprint to the mountains with a couple of mountain men in tow. That would test USPS. Rabobank, Escatel, CSC and the Bakers to name a few all have 1-2 riders who could do this, if the teams are willing to make the sacrifice. If, for example, Pil, Jullich, Sastre and Voigt took off at the start, along with Rasmussen, Virenque, and some others like this, I'd get a little worried if i were USPS.

At any rate i look for a killer pace up to the first climb to stop just this. But i think if you want to beat Armstrong you have to do it a wild and crazy, coordinated way, because Lance and USPS are awesom, but conservative.

MidBunchLurker

Mayo from LA and Ulrich. LA's looking so good though, I can't see how Ulrich can compete

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