TDF '04 contenders

patch70

Armstrong - seems to be in reasonable form as of April. Looks like his preparation is on track. Deserves his favouritism.

Ullrich - Claims to be on track but I haven't been particularly impressed with his recent race performances. Unable to stay with the pack in Fleche Wallonne going up the Mur.

Vinokourov - Reasonable form but probably not good enough at the ITT to get higher than third.

Hamilton - Perhaps, if he can stay upright this season.

Zubeldia - as per Vino.

Mayo - as per Vino.

Basso - Have not seen too much of him recently so not sure of form.

Heras - as per Basso.

Sastre - Don't think so.

Menchov - young, probably too soon for a podium finish in '04.

Botero - as per Basso.

Jaksche - Top 10 but probably not a podium finish.

Salvodelli - as per Basso.

Simoni - can't see it happening.

Evans - will be riding for Ullrich or Vino rather than for himself.

Hard to go past Armstrong again as the likely winner.

Any other opinions? Anyone I have neglected?

traxnseq

I just see 2 riders able to win, Amrstong or Ullrich.
There is certainly much more importance this year on the team than during the years before.
T-Mobile can certainly give the necessary push to Ullrich, but this depends on the form of the riders. Without injuries, Botero, Salvodelli, Vino, and Kessler can certainly ride the train in the mountains for Ullrich. But! The tour will not be decieded by the team, I think that individually Ullrich is much stronger and more experienced than during his former 2nd places. We could see last year that Armstrong isn't longer the dominator, neither in the mountains neither in the time trials. One thing is sure: le tour 2004 will be once again a big battle and I personally see Ullrich winning. Don't worry about the spring and his recent races, it is not important to win at this stage it is important to be in shape on the beginning/middle of june for the final races and the beginning. I can even imagine that Armstrong will not be under the top 3 this year...he just was not convincing last year....

jhuskey

Armstrong odds on favorite but Heras knows his tactics and I believe is a top contender if he can hang in the TT's. Ullrich looks out of shape to me. He would have to come a long way before July.

__________________
Whenever I can't get excited about riding I just fantasize about someone else's bike.

limerickman

This continuing onsession with the TDF, folks !

There are plenty of other races to discuss - look we're in the middle of the Classics season - we've got the Giro, Romandie,
Tour of Switzerland, Dauphine all coming up.
We've got the national championships coming up too.

Has anyone got any thoughts about Rebellins double this week ?

There's more to cycling than the TDF.
The TDF is not the be all and end all !

patch70

That is why this is posted in the Grand Tour section.
Feel free to start posts on the Spring Classics in the Road Racing area.

luke1972

I find it amazing that Armstrong has won five tours in a row, despite the bad luck of last year. I think for him to loose it would take some of these factors:

A "fan" to physically harm him, as per Merckx. I think I read somewhere Merckx was punched in the stomach by a spectator thus harming his chances for a 6th title. There may be a sicko out there prepared to do something like this.

A cold/virus or some other physical limitation out of Armstrongs control.

Bad luck, a couple of punctures, falls, broken bones.

Whilst Armstrong is sprinting to victory in America, Simoni struggles, Ulrich is pulling out of races, Belocki is not racing.

I am an Ulrich fan but think if it comes down to rider v rider it will be hard to beat Armstrong.

The beauty of sport and life is that it may happen though.

Shnerpals

I was going to post this as a seperate thread for comments but i figure it will build on the discussion of who will win...




This was taken from cyclingnews.com:

First Edition Cycling News for April 13, 2004
Edited by Jeff Jones

Merckx critical of Ullrich
Although Jan Ullrich maintains that he is right on target for his Tour de France plans, there are concerns that he is taking things a little too easy at this time of year. In today's Rund um Köln, Ullrich could only manage 64th place at 5'41 down from the winner, a far cry from his 52 km solo effort to win last year.

Ullrich joked afterwards that, "In 2003 I was an outsider and I was only able to win because the others didn't recognise me in my Coast jersey. However, it's a long time to the Tour and I'm on the right track."

Five time Tour winner Eddy Merckx, who is never afraid to speak his mind, told DPA, "It seems that Jan has again not worked hard enough in his previous preparation and is still too much overweight. Sure, he has still over two months, but to beat Lance Armstrong in the Tour will be harder than 2003."

Ullrich will ride in Wednesday week's Flèche Wallonne (April 21), followed by Liege-Bastogne-Liege (April 25) and the Rund um den Henninger Turm (May 1).




and this is taken from yahoo cycling news...

Ullrich pulls out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege

BERLIN, April 22 (Reuters) - Jan Ullrich will not compete in Sunday's Liege-Bastogne-Liege World Cup race because of his poor form, his T-Mobile team said on Thursday.

"Jan is not at the moment in a form that would enable him to play a leading role in such a race," T-Mobile spokesman Olaf Ludwig said.

German Ullrich, 30, won the Tour de France in 1997 and is regarded as the rider most capable of stopping Lance Armstrong from winning the Tour a record sixth time in July.

He finished runner-up to American Armstrong in last year's Tour.




So is Jan on track?

__________________
-Jill
"I'll be back next year, and I'm not coming back to be second, but hopefully to come back to the level I was in the first four Tours." -Lance Armstrong 6/26/03

patch70

I am hoping Jan will surprise me but I just don't see him getting into sufficient form in the time he has available.

Agree with Luke1972: seems like only bad luck will stop Armstrong at this stage. But maybe Heras or Hamilton are up to it?

traxnseq

about Ullrich, he will be in shape for le Tour...
As Laurant Jalabert told yesterday during Liege-Bastogne-Liege: ...I don't mind about Ullrich's shape, he is riding hard (too hard) races compared to Armstrong (who is riding 2nd and 3rd category races); Ullrich will be in shape for the tour....
I am quite sure that for the Tour de Suisse (if he will be) we will be see an Ullrich in pre-Tour shape.

limerickman

Can you provide a link to Jalabert's comments (did you get them from the net ?)
Thanks
Limerickman

traxnseq

there is no link;
I heard him live, he was co-commentator for the french television during liege-bastogne-liege and they discussed about armstrong and ullrich. The main commentator had the same concerns as a lot of people about ullrich (weight, shape, attitude.....) and jalabert calmed him directly in saying ....don"t worry .....

limerickman

Can I ask you - how is Laurent doing as a commentator ?
He was always such a canny rider, I would imagine that he has some good insights in to the tactics and strategies.
I always like LJ - reminded me of my all time hero Sean Kelly.

traxnseq

is very very good as commentator;
during the tdf is even on a moto to comment from the inside of the race;
if not it is definitely someone who speaks very open and who knows the business and the riders (and their attitude);
French Television has definetly won a good consultant, that means during the 'main events' they have Bernard Thevenet + JaJa....

traxnseq

is very very good as commentator;
during the tdf is even on a moto to comment from the inside of the race;
it is definitely someone who speaks very open and who knows the business and the riders (and their attitude);
French Television has definetly won a good consultant, that means during the 'main events' they have Bernard Thevenet + JaJa....