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15-07.-2008, 04:47 PM
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#46 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 291
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Re: Can Kirchen win this thing?
Quote:
Yep - he won't chase Green I don't think. I think Cavendish will. I can see Columbia try and dominate Stage 12 and 13 regardless if they are transitional stages. They are after stage wins so will try and bring more glory to Cavendish or Ciolek so Kirchen can kiss green goodbye. He will recover and as he isn't in yellow, he doesn't have the pressure on him so he should be able to stick with them in the Alps. In anycase, I think there are two more mountain top finishes? He will be fresh in the first one and should match them. The next stage, he can get back on the descent if he loses and its a matter of staying with them on Alp D'Huez. Yesterday was his 'bad day' and he is still within 2 minutes of Cadel. Very good performance by him thus far and if he can recover, he should come third or second. Definately in the top 5 somewhere. |
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15-07.-2008, 07:04 PM
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#47 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 63
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Re: Can Kirchen win this thing?
Personally Grater I don't think Kirchen is a better TTer than Menchov (I think the opening TTer this tour is the exception). Just my 2 cents.
Top 5 is a strong possibility for Kim. The win and the podium I suspect will be too much. |
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15-07.-2008, 08:23 PM
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#48 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 3,846
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Re: Can Kirchen win this thing?
Kirchen has been in the red in both mountain stages. In the first stage, he was clearly hurting, but barely managed to hang on. Yesterday, he was dropped. So, I am very skeptical about whether he will do much better in the Alps, or whether he will podium.
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15-07.-2008, 10:13 PM
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#49 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 256
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Re: Can Kirchen win this thing?
Quote:
I just don't see it happening at all. I pretty much believe the podium is Menchov, Evans, and between Schleck, Ricco, and Sastre for the other podium. The strength of CSC as a whole, and the climbing abilities of Saunier, these teams will just continue to attack and counterattack. I see it as a very good possibility that all the mountain stages will be won by one of these 2 teams. Strength in numbers, and Kirchens team is a bunch of flatlanders, Sistsou, and Lovkist. Within 2 km of a Cat 1 climb or better, he is down instantly to 3 teammates. He needs to gain time on the climbs and its hard to single handily chase down 3 or 4 different guys by yourself. |
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20-07.-2008, 06:38 PM
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#50 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 240
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Re: Can Kirchen win this thing?
On the topic of Kirchen for Green - Freire is now 75 points ahead. The next three mountain stages see the stage winner get 20 points although there are a few sprints on each stage as well. After that there are two rolling stages - Freire should be able to finish with the leaders on that sort of stage unless there is a mental pace set - which is not impossible if one of the leaders cracks. Then there is the TT, then the final stage in Paris. If Kirchen can win the next three stages or finish very high up then he will still be behind. He may get some points in the TT but he will still have to do better than Freire on the other stages to get the final green jersey. So, even in a best case scenario he still loses. His only hope is that freire crashes or loses a lot of form. Could be close for second between Kirchen and Hushovd, Zabel.
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