Can Kirchen win this thing?

Scotttri

I dont think Kirchen can keep it up for 3 weeks, I also dont think he'll match it with the likes of Evans in the longer time trial. As for evans being a wheel sucker incapable of attacking, his form this year points differently. People are saying he cant match it in the mountains with the valverdes, menchov etc. I seem to recall last year that the only two riders better than him in the mountains were Contador who won and chicken who was dq'd.

stilesiii

Lim, at this stage who do you like?

Evans looked strong in yesterday's ITT, but I'll have to see Evans actually drop someone in the mountains before I can be a believer.

limerickman

My guess is Valverde, followed by Evans.
But it will be close.

Reason I'm going for Valverde is that I think he has a stronger squad than Evans and I think that unlike previous years Valverde has improved in the mountains and may not be prone to having a "sans jour" (bad day).
I could be wrong of course.

Evans is a superior climber but I think that his team is not as strong as Valverde's.

Heart says Evans.
Head says Valverde.

I could be, and I possibly am, wrong though.

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Powerful Pete

I think that at the end of the day we will be surprised by who is rolling into Paris with the yellow jersey. I just do not believe that Valverde has three weeks in him...

As Lim stated, Evans' team is quite weak. I think it will be someone else.

Who? Dunno. I would be a lot richer if I could figure that one out...

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Jan the man

I'm not sure re Kirchen, he is in super form. I still think he will falter in the high mountains but very impressive. Leading the peloton for Cav with 800m to go as well. Remenicent of Ullrich for Zabel in 1996.

adamastor

hmmm, I think Kirchen feels he's in top form, and wants to win his stage as quickly as possible, before he breaks in. Remember his "off day* in Tour de Suisse during uphill TT? And last year in TDF he had as well a weaker day in the mountains. So, he will do everything to catch the yellow jersey before the Pyrenees and enjoy it as long as he can.

Jan the man

One of the reasons I like Kirchen are that his performances remind me of someone in pre 1990, ie has great days, has bad days it used to be common in the past.

Wayne666

I didn't think Valverde looked super in the mountains even in the Dauphine. He was probably the best of them, but he never looked like he could just drop Evans and company whenever he wanted, and based on the TT his form seems to have dipped. I don't think he's going to win it either.

Probably going to come down to the final TT between Evans and Menchov with a climber or two that are close but with no realistic chance.

OAR8

Kitchen who? LMAO

Evans or Valv.

Chipotle and Columbia teams are what they are. Not much more at this time anyhow.

stilesiii

Heart says Evans.
Head says Valverde.

I could be, and I possibly am, wrong though.[/QUOTE]
Post Armstrong, the favorites hadn't got it done. I just don't see one of the favorites winning this thing.

The Alps are going to be brutal. Its possible for someone to have a special day and put 5 minutes into the field. I'm just not sure who that is, I like Kirchen's form, but I don't think he is ready yet.

The stars are lined up for both Evans and Valverde. We'll see if either will go and take advantage of the opportunity.

stilesiii

Columbia seems to be very well organized and focused. The effort Big George and Kirchen put in for Cavendish in Stage 5 was impressive. I really think top five is possible.

Big George looks like he lost 20 lbs. Chickenesque.

Could he be prepared for D'huez.

Its great for American cycling to move past Armstrong, and both teams in this years Tour are helping that along.

TheDarkLord

Yeah, and a nice slap in the face for Discatana fanboys and fangirls who aren't watching the Tour because "America's team" has been excluded from racing the Tour. Too bad that the likes of musette are hibernating in their caves.

nns1400

I've been thinking the same thing...this is a great year for America's teams so far...I don't think anyone watching is missing the Kazakh team...

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This stuff is just crap...Hitchy

Grater

Kirchen rides the Alps better than Pyrenees. The Alps suit him better. He is only 1 minute 56 behind. Ahead of him are Sastre 28 seconds, Menchov 59 seconds, Kohl 1 minute 10, Vande Velde, 1 minute 18, Schleck 1 minute 59, Evans 1 minute 56.

Last year Kirchen rode well in the Alps by himself but he will have Siutsou and Lovkvist with him. I don't think Kirchen will win, but I can still see him podium. Kohl won't stay there and I doubt Sastre will in the Alps - he will be riding for Schleck and Kirchen kicked Schleck's arse in Switzerland last month. Menchov is a tough one. Kirchen can time trial better than Mencov and Sastre. Top 3 is still very possible for him. He said that if he can stay with the main favourites in the Pyrenees and not lose too much time, then it will be suited for him more in the Alps.