2008 Tour De France : Stage 5 Cholet - Châteauroux 230 km Wednesday, July

limerickman

Stage 5

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Anticyclone

Looks like a nice day - some pretty foul weather looks to be heading for southern Britain with strong winds through the Channel but the weather quickly improves as you head into France and the race route should be dry with a SW breeze at about 10mph and temperatures will climb to 25C. The slight tailwind should help a breakaway stay away but after an easy day today will the sprinters' teams do better today? Or will they hope that someone else will do most of the work? Cavendish looked less than impressed when interviewed after the race but i dont think Team High Road will do all the work theirselves. They have Kirchen to look after on the next stage. Also, they may have some interest in a breakaway staying away as the big points the breakaway takes will help Kirchen stay at or near the top of the points competition. I dont think it means they wont chase but they wont want to do all the work. It also partly depends on who is in the yello jersey. If Feillu clings onto it today then his team will go all out to keep it tomorrow. CSC may also want to keep it for Cancellara if he wins but with three GC contenders i dont think they will be stringing the bunch out too much.

Cavendish to win if it ends in a bunch sprint which i think is likely - the teams should sort themselves out this time. If it is a breakaway then it could be almost anyone really. Gilbert or Casar are names that come to mind.

jhuskey

I was thinking the same thing about Gilbert and Casar and maybe Voeckler wants his name back in the paper Wednesday night.
Either way a long and flat stage . I expect the team mangers will do better with calculations for catching the breakway this go around.
I would predict maybe multiple breakaway groups and venture a wild a** guess that Zabel may have a good day.

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Whenever I can't get excited about riding I just fantasize about someone else's bike.

Jeff Vader

I would love to see Zabel get one last Tour stage and show Cavendish what an old man can do.

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Cake or Death?

Grater

I don't think it will be a bunch sprint. The peloton wouldn't be able to organise a fight in a fight club.

Now that Kirchen is technically in Yellow, Columbia need to protect him and he needs to protect his green jersey so I highly doubt Columbia will be doing pace setting tonight! If I was team director at the tour, I would tell 6 riders to blanket Kirchen and try and set Cavendish and Ciolek in the breakaway. That's how I would do stage 5 if I was in the right position. And that's exactly what Columbia should do!

Grater

Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.

Sprint finish, it's Cavendish!

Runitout

Cavendish is the quickest man there - the question is whether or not he can find his way to the finish with his lead out train. I think this course will suit someone with punch, as the slight downhill finish should help them maintain their speed post acceleration.

I'm going for McEwen, as he had good history in similar finishes - although he was quicker then.

Freire is my second pick.

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Means nothing; others it leaves
Nothing to be said.

Crankyfeet

Wow... you already know who is going to be in the break group...

Have you just come back from breakfast with the Columbia team and every other rider in the hotel as the peloton sorted out who's going to be in the break?...

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Grater

Yep!

Surely this has to be a sprint finish. If it isn't, then this tour is screwed!

1. Cavendish
2. Freire
3. McEwen

Grater

I do have a sneaky suspicion that Columbia have decided they won't want to do most the work tonight, so you heard it here first. There is a strong possibility Cavendish is in the breakaway! He wants a stage win and with how it's gone so far, his best chance is in a break! Like I say - if I was team director I would try and get Cavendish in the break! And if Cavendish gets in the break, it won't be chased down.

Crankyfeet

Do you think that CA, Rabo, Milram, and Barloworld will let that break succeed if Cav is in there without Thor, Freire, Zabel, and Hunter?

And what would be in it for the other guys in the break? Bust your arse to stay away from the peloton so you can fight it out for second place?

Even Robbie would chase that one down on his own...

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Grater

Cav won't be the only sprinter there!

If the sprinters decide to be in the break, the break will consist of

McEwen, Cavendish, Hushovd, Zabel with Voeckler, Chavanel, Casar, Gilbert and Domoulin

If the sprinters don't decide to be in the break, replace those 4 with 4 no names

Crankyfeet

So you're saying that the last four guys on your list are going to bust their gut to see who can get 5th place? Or are they just going to fight it out for the KOM points?

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Grater

I thought there were no climbs today? Nah, I don't know if sprinters will be in the break, I just assume that they need to try something radical to get a win as I don't think the peloton can organise anything at the moment. If the sprinters don't get into the break, then it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those riders in the break!