Iran Under Pressure

Carrera

I think we all know Iran is chasing a nuclear bomb whereas we all knew Iraq never had those WMD.
You could argue Iran has every reason to try and get an atomic bomb, given the fact they feel threatened and I suppose that would be logical.
The fact remains, though, what happens if the U.S. chooses not to intervene at all (a possibility)?
That will almost certainly mean Israel going it alone. Rightly or wrongly the Israelis feel the risk of a nuclear Iran is too great to appease.
The U.S. has a tricky situation on its hands.

__________________
"Everybody has a philosophy. However, what philosophy you have is a matter of choice, and most people don't make a conscious choice with regard to what philosophy they accept."

limerickman

What?
"we all know Iran is chasing a nuclear bomb"

On what basis do we all know that Iran is chasing a nuclea bomb?
Todays newspapers report - as was the case in Iraq in 2002/2003 - that there is no evidence that Iran is developing military WMD.

And "we all knew Iraq never had those WMD"
If we all knew that Iraq had no WMD - then why the hell did your country and the USA invade Iraq?
And why, if "we all knew..." are people prepared to accept the same rethoric
being used in the case of Iran.




Israel isn't allowed to move unless it gets the say so from it's paymasters in the USA.
The USA control the Israeli access to heavy weapony and access to Israeli airspace.
If Israel does decide that it wants to act unilaterally - it can't, unless the Americans give them the nod.
The Israeli's are like your country - they have to ask permission to act.

That's why DeGaulle was very wise in making certain that French defence system remained independent.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

lyotard

the thread title should really be "us attack plans for iran under scrutiny".

and yes, a relevent discussion of this matter cannot exclude israel and the us support for israel.
oil and the us objective of controlling the 2nd and 3rd largest as supplies as well. this can only be perpetrated by denying a region its' autonomy, and looking for a rationale that people will buy (as in pay for dearly) that will attempt to justifty these means.

__________________
"i think it would be a good idea"

-mahatma gandhi, upon being posed the question
"what do you think of western civilization?"

limerickman

Thanks BD

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

wolfix

The Republicans are sitting back and know as long as HClinton keeps going as she is, then the Dems have no one. America will never elect OBama.... The Republicans are laughing over that one......

And HClinton is self destructing.......... If she was even remotely electable...... who else do they have????? I thought Edwards was a choice, but his present numbers do not reflect that.

Bush is far from a lame duck President...... The dems are fighting among themselves...... They lost their resolution last week........ The Republicans , even though they are in the minority, had enough votes to kick it out.......

The Dems are self destructing before our eyes......... There is small group of Dems destroying what is left of the party....... Clinton,Kennedy Kerry, Dean ........ These Dems do not have the support of the Democratic voters across the nation........

If the Dems could not win in 2004 when it was handed to them, it sure won't win with a woman nor a black canidate in 2008.......

Obama is going to cost the Dems the election...... He would never be considered. But he is pulling much needed money away from Hilary...Money that is needed.... The hollywood jet set may not be a factor when it comes to the primaries, but it is a large donor to the war chests...... and Obama has split that......

__________________
"I rule my world with a cellphone."

Carrera

"On what basis do we all know that Iran is chasing a nuclea bomb?"

Lim, surely it's pretty much common sense on all out parts. Of course, Iran seeks nuclear weapons. Of course Iran has been sneaking missiles into Lebanon for decades. Of course Iran has been equipping Shia militias in Iraq with roadside bombs.
I understand there are a lot of folks over here in this country who are quite prepared to accept Iran is doing none of this - I guess I'm not one of them.
As for Iraq, again it was common sense. Iraq never had WMD - we all knew that. We saw it when a few paltry skuds were fired at Kuwait.
Iran, though, is not Iraq.
"then why the hell did your country and the USA invade Iraq?"
"Myself I was against the said invasion from day one. I don't know why they invaded but the invasion seems to have helped Iran.
If Israel does decide that it wants to act unilaterally - it can't, unless the Americans give them the nod."
Take it from me: France helped Israel develop its nuclear program and Israel also has a lot under its belt the U.S. knows nothing of. Israel isn't at all like England since Israel is a nuclear power in its own right and can launch missiles from its own guidance systems.
The U.K. cannot lauch a single missile without U.S. permission and operation of U.S. guidance systems because the U.K. chose simply to rely on the U.S. totally.
It was me that pointed this out to everyons some weeks ago.
However, seeing as the U.S. is Israel's main ally, you're right it has a lot of influence in these matters and Israel wouldn't likely attack those facilties in Iran without the U.S. knowing.
However, if Iran accepted Russia's offer and processed uranium in Russia, it would have all the nuclear energy it needed.

__________________
"Everybody has a philosophy. However, what philosophy you have is a matter of choice, and most people don't make a conscious choice with regard to what philosophy they accept."

limerickman

Common sense?
It's common sense when making a case to provide evidence to support that case.

You don't know the intentions of Iran.
You don't know if Iran has developed nuclear weapons.
You don't know if Iran has the capability of delivering those nuclear weapons.

It would be common sense to try to establish the extent of these issues before arriving at any conclusions.




yeah we know what you atttidue is.




...................Israel has the capability of launching a strike.
That's not in question.
What is in question is - who gives the authorisation.
That authorisation resides with the USA.
The US controls Israeli airspace - and it is they who have the final say as to what can and cannot be allowed to enter Israeli airspace.




Iran is entitled to enrich it's own uranium.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

thebluetrain

Ummmm. I seem to remember Israel invading Southern Lebanon of few months ago "on their own" after a couple of soldiers were snatched by Hezbollah. Permission to act????? Keep spinning Lim. More like we didnt step in to stop them. The Israeli's are more than capable of handling themselves and they certainly arent trigger shy.

limerickman

Israel did invade Lebannon - with aquiesence of the USA.

Israel doesn't do anything before getting permission from USA.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Bro Deal

This is not a given at all. Current estimates are that Iran's current population growth and economic growth will cause the consumption of all of Iran's petroleum output sometime between 2020 and 2025. Some estimates are even more dire than that. Iran needs nuclear energy.


So what if Iran has been giving weapons to Hezbollah. Lebanon needs to defend itself from an aggressive, land hungry colonial power to its south. The vast majority of U.S. troop deaths from IEDs are due to Sunni insurgents. Most of this occurs in Anbar province. There has been zero evidence that the Iranian government has been arming rebel groups with IEDs. People have been smuggling things in that area for thousands of years. It's almost an honerable profession. So weapons coming across the Iranian border proves nothing about the involvement of the Iranian government.

And if Iran is arming the Shiites, so what? The U.S. has started a Sunnit-Shiite war and eventually all sides are going to supply weapons. This is not exactly rocket science.


There is a huge question of whether Israel could launch an effective strike. This is not bombing an experimental reactor in Iraq. It involves damaging industrial infrastructure, much of it is secret. The U.S. planners are currently thinking of using thousands of sorties to do the bombing. Israel is incapable of that number of attacks over that distance.


Why should it accept? The NPT guarantees peaceful use of nuclear energy as an inaliable right. The U.N.'s sanctions have no legal justification. The illegal actions of the U.N. show just how foolish it would be for Iran to source its nuclear fuel from the West. What happens when Iran's economy becomes dependent on nuclear energy and the U.N. decides to cut them off? The U.S. has waged economic war against Iran for thirty years. What happens when the U.S. uses its soft power to pressure Russia to curtail uranium shipments?

The issue of Iran's nuclear program is nothing but a ruse by evangelical bigots who think they are still living in the time of the crusades and want to make the Middle East safe for Israel to steal land. If the people who are griping about Iran are so concerned about a peaceful and stable Middle East they should start with giving some justice to the palestinians.

__________________
"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

Carrera

"The vast majority of U.S. troop deaths from IEDs are due to Sunni insurgents. "

My first point: Bush is, without a doubt, the stupidest, bungling excuse for a so-called war leader we've ever seen or are ever likely to see again. The questions begs to be raised again: Why in this world have the Americans' done Iran's job and removed the only buffer there was to Iranian expansion - Saddam Hussein and a strong Iraq?
I'm aware my views probably irritate Lim over Iran but I'm really not alone and possibly Lim isn't aware this view is actually shared by the Saudis and, likewise, the Saudis wouldn't be at all upset if someone knocked out Iran's nuclear facilities.
The Saudis are furious with Bush, perplexed and pretty much stunned any American leader would be dumb enough to send U.S. troops into Iraq to help Iran!!
So, now the Saudis are considering themselves going nuclear.
"So weapons coming across the Iranian border proves nothing about the involvement of the Iranian government."
My view is simple (probably shared by the Saudis again). Israel should take out those facilities. Israel needs to stop being guided by Bush as he's essentialy the one who destabilised the region and seems pretty clueless as a war leader (even dodged the draft anyway). As a tactician, he's also clueless. His war tactics have been shambolic and he never should have sent in ground troops (or even invaded Iraq in the first place).
"And if Iran is arming the Shiites, so what? The U.S. has started a Sunnit-Shiite war and eventually all sides are going to supply weapons. This is not exactly rocket science."
Exactly. The current U.S. leader doesn't have clue.
"The issue of Iran's nuclear program is nothing but a ruse by evangelical bigots who think they are still living in the time of the crusades and want to make the Middle East safe for Israel to steal land."
If you yourself feel comfortable over the prospect of Iran armed with a nuclear weapon, that's your choice and I figure you have the same right to your own view. However, this view isn't shared throughout the Arab World. Many Arabs are pretty mad the U.S. has made such a cock-up of foreign policy and can only conclude Bush is helping Iran for whatever reason.

__________________
"Everybody has a philosophy. However, what philosophy you have is a matter of choice, and most people don't make a conscious choice with regard to what philosophy they accept."

thebluetrain

You got proof that Israel asked permission?

Carrera

It may be a harsh pill to swallow, Lim, but the plain fact is Israel is an independent nuclear power with far more influence and clout than my country or your country.
True, Israel isn't not on a par with Russia but Melanie Phillips calculates Israel has sufficent firepower to wipe out the entire Middle East if pushed into a corner.
Israel is not Britain. Britain has no option but to cling to the U.S.'s coat tails because the U.S. totally controls any nuclear defence we're believed to have. However, Israel has weapons the U.S. knows nothing about and would be pretty much powerless to restrict. That's why the U.S. is in a panic over Iran. They probably figured out the Israelis won't hesitate to strike Iran first. They already stated they're totally confident they can destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure if they have to do so.

"For reactor design and construction, Israel sought the assistance of France. Nuclear cooperation between the two nations dates back as far as early 1950's, when construction began on France's 40MWt heavy water reactor and a chemical reprocessing plant at Marcoule. France was a natural partner for Israel and both governments saw an "independent nuclear" option as a means by which they could maintain a degree of autonomy in the bipolar environment of the cold war."

__________________
"Everybody has a philosophy. However, what philosophy you have is a matter of choice, and most people don't make a conscious choice with regard to what philosophy they accept."

Carrera

"Members of the Israeli parliament from across the political spectrum are urging the United States to stop Iran's nuclear programs, or Israel will "act unilaterally." Statements of grave concern about Iran's nuclear program have been made by Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, and Mossad chief Meir Dagan (Iran poses an "existential threat" to Israel). Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter accuses Iran of plotting relentlessly to attack Israeli targets.
How will it all get started? No matter how much Bush and Cheney want it, the U.S. Senate is unlikely to authorize the bombing of Iranian installations out of the blue. Unless there is some major disturbance in Iraq that can be blamed on Iran, Israel is likely to pull the trigger. It knows how to and has every motivation to do so.
Once Israel drops the first bomb on an Iranian nuclear facility, as it did with Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981, there is no return. Bushehr is likely to be the first target; other installations will follow."

__________________
"Everybody has a philosophy. However, what philosophy you have is a matter of choice, and most people don't make a conscious choice with regard to what philosophy they accept."