Will lance win the tour. Ulrich is right on his ass.

limerickman

Beastt,
The Texan is tougher psychologically than Ullrich - when it comes to the TDF.
I believe that Ullrich was the rightful heir to Indurain, Hinault, Merckx, Anquetil when he burst on the scene in 1996
(came second in his first full year as a pro in the TDF !).
Indurain told me that the reason he retired was that he could see
Ullrich in his rear view mirror, in Dublin in 1998.
(What BigMig meant was that his - Indurains - time was finished and that he say the new generation in JU).
Ullrich then went AWOL in 1998 : and then LA came back to the sport.
We can discuss the merits of the authenticity of LA's performances, of which I think there are grave, grave misgivings.

The Texan gained momentum from his victory in 1999 and I believe that we have seen that momentum begin to wane in 2003.
When you consider an ill-prepared Ullrich, with a cobbled together team, turned in a stellar performance in the 2003 TDF,
I believe (and sincerely hope) that the reign of the Armstrong will be finished in 2004 and that Ullrich can improve on 2003.
His ability - his cycling pedigree has been evident from day 1 (unlike the Texan's cycling pedigree - what pedigree ?????).

Armstrong will be super motivated for 2004 - his motivation is premised upon the fact that by gaining the TDF title he is somehow going to enjoy the respect of all cycling fans.
The Texan equates that by competing in a three week race, every year since 1999 and winning same, should entail acceptance, respect from genuine fans of the sport of cycling.
Well, I'm sorry but the dearth of stage race victories between
1992-1996, simply confirms that doubts that a large number of us have about the Texan's performances since 1998.

I hope that Ullrich wins in 2004 - I think that if he devotes all his attention to winning the TDF, i think he can win it.
The problem is, will he decide to do so ?

Beastt

Is it just me or does this reflect a concern for where the riders are from more than their riding ability? "Rightful heir"? Perhaps I've missed some deep, spiritual side of the Tour but I thought the rightful heir was the rider who reached Paris in yellow. If not for Lance with the support of USPS, that most likely would have been Ullrich but this is a matter of timing not riding ability. Had Ullrich been born a few years later or a few years earlier, he probably would have 5 Tour de France wins but many riders are closely shadowed as they bring the jersey to Paris.

I'll assume that the comment referring to Ullrich being AWOL in 1998 meant that he wasn't entirely devoted to the race. He certainly wasn't absent, he was right behind Pantani.

Ullrich is perhaps the most talented. Even Lance pays him that compliment but it takes more than talent to win and Ullrich is well known for being less than a greately skilled descender and seems to lack the edge required when it comes to tactics as well. Certainly no winner of the Tour de France has done so without the help of his team and Ullrich's short term with Bianchi was very possibly the deciding factor in the outcome of 2003. How often can it not be properly supposed that some single critical factor played a major role in the race outcome?

Armstrong crushed the competition in 1999. He did the same thing in 2000 with Ullrich ('97 winner) and Pantani ('98 winner) present and he embarrassed them both in Stage 10 when he put 6 minutes between himself and the defending champions. His tactics were unique in 2001 but when he stood near the base of l'Alpe d'Huez and powered away, Ullrich could do nothing but watch him go. The case was the same when Armstrong chased down Pantani on Mont Ventoux in 2000 while Ullrich watched helplessly.

The 2003 win is the only one in which Armstrong didn't show himself to be clearly stronger, smarter and better prepared than the competition. He's admitted that repeatedly. But he still crossed the line in less time than any of the other riders. Ullrich is a phenomenon, no doubt about it. Armstrong is just that much better than Ullrich. Ullrich had a stomach virus, a new team which failed to fully support him, (at least in stage 19 where 3 Bianchi riders crashed in the same turn yet failed to warn Ullrich). He may well have had other handicaps that were kept secret. Armstrong was also suffering the remnants of a stomach problem as well as problems caused by his crash in the Dauphine Libere. He had hip problems traced to the cleat orientation on the new shoes he switched to shortly before the race and a number of other small problems. All of these things played a factor in the race. That's what the race is. A number of factors, some athletic, some intellectual, some unfortunate, uncontrollable and unforeseeable. The end result is the culmination of all the factors present with a major factor being the ability of the riders themselves.

Certainly I feel sorry for Ullrich in that he is such an amazing cyclist and if not for Armstrong would probably be a member of the Famous Five club. But try as you might, you can't take away Armstrong's hard-won victories. He's earned every single one of them!