China Overtaking Europe

Carrera

I had a Texan business friend and we ran a business in Spain. He told me without a doubt the average Spaniard lived better than the average American. More holidays, better pensions, more social protection.
The downside of the coin was Spain was way behind in technology and Spain was creating fewer jobs than in the U.S.
And now it's the other way round in China. The average American lives far better than the average Chinese but China is leaving the U.S. way behind in exports and industry.

Carrera

I take your point about the combined E.U. countries.
But how long with the E.U. last? Don't get me wrong. I would like the E.U. to replace China as the next superpower but there are problems. The E.U. is trying to copy the U.S. model and the U.S. model, I believe, won't work in Europe. We are far more diverse. We are not states but distinct countries with out own languages, cultures and history.
There are big divisions. We couldn't unite at the time of the Iraq war and had Poland opposing France, Britain opposing Germany e.t.c.
China has 2 main languages, Mandarin and Cantonese. It has one economic plan, one state sports program that's producing world class athletes and one military. It has one foreign policy and a strong leadership that can take tough decisions whereas we in Europe are crippled by red tape.
My own firm, for example, is being strangled by legislation and our income reduced.
And now France? What happens if Le Penn gains power? Will France pull out of the E.U.? The ghosts of nationalism and division are rising in France and facists gaining ground in Germany.
China has none of these problems. People there are simply making money. Would Colorado Rider form his bike company in Germany or Shaghai?

Billsworld

If I were the type of person that was looking for social security and a pension, I might agree. I just want the chance to make money without being sucked dry by wastefull tax and spend mentality.Untill my wife informed me, I had no real clue as to how much socialism is part of European life. Socialized Medicine and pensions etc.. just drive up the cost of your goods and services and make you less competative in a global sense. US isnt much better though. Things China doesnt have to deal with....yet

Carrera

I've met some very shrewd Texans in my time. I met one guy who worked several years in Germany and then spent 5 years in Moscow. During his 5 years in Moscow (which was a hell hole at the time) he made enough money to retire permanently.
Then he travelled to Estonia to buy a permanent home. Estonia is cheaper than Moscow and living standards are high with a jug of beer costing some 50 cents. So, he was laughing.
So, sure, there are places where it's good to make money and places where you can retire.
Now, China is certainly the new market for English language schools. Soon this will be a big money business. Anyone with a decent education could go to China and find work teaching in firms - maybe big companies such as Sanyo.
The shrewd Americans are already in China. This country has opportunities for westerners and I'd go myself if I was a few years younger.

Billsworld

Thats a good point. FYI... My closest friends agree that china will change radicly in the next 20 yrs.. I just like to argue

Colorado Ryder

Is that why almost all Chinese exports go to the US? China had better hope the US economy remains strong. If we go down China will hit the floor real hard. The US market is still by far the largest in the world. China's market has the potential to be as large. But China will need many more reforms before that happens. I'm not so sure that China's political system can survive a US/EU size economy. To be the size of the US or EU they will need to adapt many more market freedoms that the rulers probably won't want to give up.

jhuskey

I have been meaning to state that point for a while to those that wish woes upon the US economy.
We are consumers and without consumers there is no trade.
If the US goes down we are taking a few with us.

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Sobriety is over rated!

limerickman

The reality, as I have stated before, is that the entire planets economic systems are now integrated.
This is the by-product of globalisation.

If the EU or China or the USA was to implode economically, it would cause ructions throughout.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

jhuskey

Absolutely correct,the bigger the country and it's participation in the world market ,the bigger the ripples that are created when economic anomalies are present in that country.
We are a parasitic society in some ways and I believe it will become more so as we move forward and the world becomes smaller.

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Sobriety is over rated!

Billsworld

The rulers granting freedom is the big question. I say they will fight against it, but my friend who does biz there is say ing the communist stronghold will end within 20 years. I too have alot of faith in the US economy, but I think the question for us 1)is how long can we continue to borrow, spend AND nation build?2) how much longer can we expand the social spending.? The US seems to be a magnet for every 3rd world country to go to. The libs look at the the cost of "welfare" and dismiss the cost as minimal. The expense goes way past what that one program costs. They neglect to site the cost of SSI, Free medical, Section 8 housing, food stamps, the prison system as a result of the previous. They also dont mention how many illegals are on some or all of those programs. They also neglect to site the cost on busineses and people that are operating on a middle class paycheck,who have to pay for most of the expense. Thanks BW

wolfix

Exactly ...... I read somewhere that if Germany would collapse, so would the US banking system ..... The European economic community & and the US is so closely tied that sometimes it is hard to know who the true ownership is.... I have always said that Corporations such as BP, IBM, Microsoft, etc, etc, are their own "countries" anyway. They play by their own rules.
The British ownership of land in the US is rarely discussed. They are a large landowner. Back in the 80's when the talk of Japan taking over the US was going on , it was explained to me that the Japanese strenght was false. They simply had no real ownership in nothing here.... The corporations they owned were a false economy because of the lack of land ownership.
When we look at the world's economic chain, we need to consider it as a whole.
The communist system in China will be a hinderance eventually. In order to survive capitolism needs a free market.

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Carrera

I think Americans are going to get a bit of a shock on the scale of Yuri Gagarin and sputnik.
The U.S. is complacent and very busy with the political situation in Iraq e.t.c While all this is going on, China's economy is growing incredibly fast - faster than any other modern industrialised country. China is basically minding its own business and concentrating on economic performance and reform of the infrastructure.
China will cause shockwaves in the next Olympics as they're determined to make a statement about China's new global status and so they re-adopted the old Soviet sports program.
China's space program will cause more shock waves when a lunar landing goes ahead with more plans to build a base on the moon.
China isn't bogged down by excessive red-tape and remains the most attractive place to to invest in and do business.
So, I'm very optimistic about China. That's just my view, though and time will tell.

Colorado Ryder

Oh we were shocked. Then we blew away the Soviets in the space race.

Been there and done that...oh about 36 years ago. So yes it will be shocking that someone other than the US has finally, after 36 years, reached the moon. Is there any real value in a moon base? If there was wouldn't the US, Japan, or the ESA already be there?

When you start at zero it sure is easy to grow faster than a established economy.

EoinC

General ramble :
One of the problems with comparing China with the rest of the World is that it is nowhere close to a level playing field. As has been mentioned, there is often little consideration given to the various factors that restrict development in the other economies that have been held up for comparison.
There is a case going on here at the moment where a Chinese National drilling company is reneging on supplying a Jack-up Rig to a client because, regardless of them having signed a contract, they want a higher dayrate. No other offshore drilling company would try to pull a stunt like that. The client is now in deep doggie-doo's with its mobilisation of materials and associated services, with little means of comeback other than to warn other oil companies not to enter into contracts with the (2x) Chinese National drilling companies.
I just got back from a fact-finding trip to Equatorial Guinea for our future operations there. The Chinese government has made a very large push in there and is attempting to, more or less, buy the Country. As was seen by the earlier attempt to buy-out Unocal, the Chinese government is putting a lot more effort into buying external infrastructure than it is putting into raising the standard of living for its own people.
Do you think that all that construction that is happening in the mercantile cities, that caused steel prices to soar and steel availability to plummet, is being done to provide the rural folk with somewhere nice to shop?
My guess is that, over the next 20 years, China will indeed rise to be a very substantial player. I very much doubt that freedoms for the people is on the agenda, though. The current repressive authoritarian power structure will merely change to being an extremely rich repressive authoritarian power structure.
China is still a difficult place for foreign companies to operate. We had a Rig over there earlier this year and the bueaucratic restrictions and lack of systems can be almost crippling.
A question, Carrera: When you speak of the Chinese that you know, are you referring to people who are Chinese Nationals or people who are of Chinese race? There appear to be a few generalisations of character in there which I find difficult to correlate with my experiences of interaction with Chinese Nationals.