Predictions for La Mongie?

tcklyde

Yes, a very bad day for Tyler, Jan, and Roberto.

But a very good day for Lance and probably the best day yet for Ivan Basso. He looked very strong coming across the line and he surely has made a statement few will miss.

I'm a Lance fan and so I was very excited to see Lance's trademark stoic look as he turned a quick cadence up the mountains. There can be no doubt that he is in fine, fine form.

Everyone will talk about Postal's team today. There were surely impressive. But CSC had a very good day, too, finishing 1st and 5th and with Julich at 18th. Illes Balears also put three in the top 20.

For those that are curious, here's a rundown of the ages of the top 20. Santo Gonzalez and Karpets are both 23 and the yougnsters of the pack and Guerini, at 34, is the grandpa.

1 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC - 26
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor - 32
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team - 29
4 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto - 28
5 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC - 29
6 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems - 27
7 Denis Menchov (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto - 26
8 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Domina Vacanze
9 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi - 26
10 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems - 23
11 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner - 33
12 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco - 32 (?)
13 Aitor Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo - 29
14 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Crédit Agricole - 33
15 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto - 23
16 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank - 30
17 Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Alessio-Bianchi - 28
18 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC - 32
19 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile Team - 34
20 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team - 30

Big day tomorrow. Let the fun continue!

__________________
Harry

tcklyde

I agree, but I do think that if LA grabbed the stage win, it would have been that much more psychologically powerful. The headlines would have been very hard for JU/RH/TH, etc. to handle. I would have liked to see it.

All the same, I am very excited about Basso. A great win for a future (and hey, maybe even this year) contender. Wonderful day for the Italian fans.

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Harry

Ullefan

I'm not into bets, the tour de france is like the mecca, he lost the battle, I lost my faith, our relationship goes back 7 years even though I don't know him. This is something deep for me, he was always my idol.

birdman23

I think we are all fans of JU and it is disappointing to see him struggle the way he did today.

You hit the nail on the head about T-Mobile not committing to JU. They left Cadel Evans at home (who would have helped tremendously today!) and brought Santiago Botero? What are they thinking?

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May the road you ride be a good road!

musette

JU: "I have a good team and we are not giving up.'' I agree JU shouldn't give up, but the team?! He has his loyal aide Guerini, that's for sure.

But LA has, in order of increasing strength in the mountains I think based on current form: Hincapie, Noval, Beltran, Landis, Chechu, Azevedo and hmself. He has 7/9 of his team helping him today for meaningful periods.

Noval can continue to do well on the mountains, and redeem himself a bit with respect to his disappointment in the TTT.

David_Zen

I predict that Lance will increase his lead even more in stage 13 and might even win that stage. Hell, we might even see him in Yellow on Sunday!

davidbod

Anyone thinking LA was at his rope at the line today is kidding themselves. He did not contest the win and was conserving himself for tomorrow's even harder stage. I was all smiles when I saw it was raining on the cols as LA would love this and others would dread it.

It is sad to see that JU may be at the end of his career now, allthough everyone including Lance can have a bad day. It was not just JU who lost major time today. Its almost as if we are seeing a changing of the guards, but with LA still at the top and just the seconds on down changing.

This will have a huge psychological impact on JU and TH and the race for them is surely over unless Lance has a misshap. We will see how everyone recovers physically and mentally for tomorrow's stage. Tomorrow will be the real test to see who can come back from today's disaster and whether Lance and Basso can be as impressive as they were today.

I think you have to tip your hat to Voekler and his team as they survived another day in yellow. It will be interesting to see how he and his team recover for tomorrow as well.

Ullefan

Oh woopeee, lance is going to win, I'am so happy that the tour is over for ullrich now. (sarcasm)

keydates

The problem with Ullrich is that he (and most everybody else) can't ride in the mountains as well as Lance, whether that be a result of training, genetics, or, drugs (I doubt that Lance dopes, but there is always a possibility). Those that do, ie Mayo, cannot ITT. There are 8 stages left, so it isn't over yet, but Lance's win is a major blow to his rivals (except for maybe Basso).

musette

This is sad. Reuters reports JU as saying:

"'Kloeden is riding well and could be a joker for the team,' the German said....
'If I realise I can't win, I'm ready to sacrifice my chances for the best rider in the team,' said the T-Mobile team leader, who looked Armstrong's main rival at the start of the gruelling race having finishing runner-up in the Tour five times."

JU should be demanding that everybody, Kloden included, continue to help him. Kloden has shown himself to be an unworthy aide to Jan. Kloden must have heard that Jan was in trouble. What does Kloden do? Try to finish well himself. With that kind of teammate, who needs rivals?

musette

According to Franky Adrieu (sp), former Postie and now OLTNV reporter, LA talked with Basso during the climb and agreed to let Basso win. Later, LA revealed he was happy Basso won, because Basso's mother has cancer and LA and Basso had been in conversations before the TdF about that.

"Lance and Basso talked before the finish and it was agreed that Lance would let Basso win. Lance has said in the past that he wouldn’t give out gifts anymore. But Lance has won here before, so perhaps that changed his thoughts."

http://www.uspsprocycling.com/newsf...tdf_fa_0716.htm
(column on official Postal website)

musette

TH blames his back: "'I have no excuses today, I had no legs,' he said... 'Since my crash on stage six to Angers last Friday I've had pain in my back and climbing makes it worse because I have to sit down. I felt empty.'... 'I'm disappointed but I'm not surprised. I'm trying to be optimistic but it's not easy. What's most disappointing is that I let my team down.'"

i2ambler

What about the comment that Lance made about letting Basso win:

As for Armstrong, who won here in 2002, the 32-year-old American said he had allowed Basso to win the stage because he is trying to help the Italian's mother in her fight against cancer.

"He's a hell of a good guy," Armstrong said. "We've been friends for a long time, and off the bike we're trying to work a little bit on his mom's situation, to try and see if she can win the fight against cancer.

"It's pretty special for me to have been out there with him, and the past week we haven't spoken about the race, we've spoken about his mom. It was a pleasure for me to let him (Basso) win, and he deserved to win. He was super strong."

rejobako

Interesting. It seemed to me that Basso was incredibly comfortable on that last kilometer; he barely appeared to be under stress at all.

And this answers the question I had after watching the stage. I really thought that Basso looked like he had more left in the tank than Lance, but even so, he raised his arms before the finish without even glancing over his shoulder to see whether Lance might try to get his wheel in front. In light of Armstrong's post race comments, this now makes sense.

However, even though the riders appear to be friends and share a common interest off the bike, I'm guessing Armstrong isn't prepared to offer any gifts in the future. Basso's a mere minute behind him, and as Armstrong said, he looked "super strong" today.