How can Ullrich beat Armstrong?

limerickman

The only solution I see to JU beating LA is for JU to somehow manage to constantly attack USPS.
Obviously JU cannot attacksUSPS day after day himself.
JU will need his team and other teams to force the issue with USPS.

That's why the loss of Mayo is a factor in LA's favour.
Mayo would surely have been a potential threat along with JU and
TH.
Now LA only really has two contenders left.

The loss of Vino is also a terrible blow to Mobile and indirectly JU.
If Vino was in the mix, it would give LA something else to think about too.

Ullrich will peg time back in the ITT against LA.
But before getting to that stage, JU has to devise a plan (or create an alliance) where attacks are made on a daily basis against USPS, in the hope that it might wear them down.

The loss of 15 seconds in the Prologue just set the same tone
as usual - LA being diligent and JU playing catchup.
OK JU probably had the final 2003 ITT in his mind and didn't want to crash in the prologue at 2004 TDF.

gntlmn

I think the loss of Mayo was a plus in Lance's favor, but maybe it would help Ullrich. Mayo may attack in the mountains to win a stage, and if JU manages to get on his wheel, he may find the time gap he needs. The stars have to line up properly for Jan, but I wouldn't say Mayo's elimination from GC contention helps Lance against Jan. It could go either way. Maybe it would be Lance on Mayo's wheel and Jan left behind.

I don't think Jan will beat Lance in the final ITT, unless it's hazardous conditions, and Lance already has a sizable gap and doesn't need that win. Lance seems very strong this year.

DeRosa_AV

What happens with Mayo should be interesting, I'm hoping he will be really agressive in the mountains as he so far behind on GC. LA still can't afford to let him get away which may help JU and TH. It depends if Mayo has any interest in GC or has settled for stage wins.

musette

The loss of Mayo as a real contender doesn't help JU relative to LA. Mayo is going to accelerate quickly when he attacks in the mountains. If Mayo is more aggressive, who do you think, as between LA and JU, can follow those bursts of aggression that Mayo may undertaken? LA's intrinsic biking style in the mountains makes him much better able to respond to Mayo's playfulness there.

Therefore, I don't see any way JU can will over LA, sadly, unless something unfortunate happens to LA. The simple truth is that LA is at least as good as JU in ITT, including mountain ITT of course, and LA is better than JU in the mountains. Also, LA has a better mix of domestiques to assist him in both the flats and the mountains. Hmm, where does that leave JU's winning strategy?

limerickman

Ullrich took nearly two minutes out of LA in last years ITT,
so how you can say that LA is at least as good as JU in the ITT
is puzzling.

Ullrich gets stronger as the race progresses.
LA always starts the TDF well.
If LA weakens at all, I am confident that JU will be there to
contest.

I also disagree with the view about Mayo.
As it now stands Mayo is not going to be challenging on overall
GC.
Therefore, LA has one less contend to watch as of now.

davidbod

You can't pick one race and say there was a 2 minute gap and that's indicative of their performance differences. We all know Lance screwed up and was seriously dehydrated. The last ITT of 2003 showed Lance was marking Jan the whole way. Then you have the prolog of this year.

Unfortunatley for Jan I agree with the others here that Mayo is going to explode in the Pyrenees and there is no way Jan and probalby Hamilton as well are going to be able to match it. Lance will use this to get a gap on some of his contenders and then cool down to reserve energy and let Mayo go for the stage win.

Remember we also have Herras and Basso who will want a win in the Pyrenees as well. Lance can mark all of them and even give time to them as none will be able to stay with him on the final ITT. I imagine it's going to get wild. Jan and Hamilton will do well just to stay with them. We'll see what happens, but I suspect the tour may be over by the time they come out of the Pyrenees.

gntlmn

Look carefully at the past Tours de France, and you will see that it is not Jan Ullrich who has the all time record fastest speed for a TT longer than 50 km. It's Lance that has this record.

To write Lance off by saying that Jan did better than he did last year ignores his normal performances in favor of a flawed performance last year. He's not off form this year, but he was last year. Between the flu and his divorce, Lance was struggling. There is no evidence of such a struggle this year. All through the spring, he has shown good form, and it appears that he will be peaking soon. Jan hasn't shown that he can touch him in the TT this year. He has yet to show that he can do better than to best him when Lance is in top form. Lance has beaten Jan regularly in the TT in the past.

This is not to say that the margin will be devastating. I suspect that the battle will be a respectable one.

gntlmn

I agree with you and Lance. Both say that the race will be decided before the Alps.

It seems that you have the competition accurately portrayed. Lance would be wise to do as you say and the way Indurain used to do regularly in the mountain stages--hang with the pure climbers when they attack, and then graciously offer them the glory of the stage win.

I'm looking forward to seeing Mayo explode in the mountains.

DeRosa_AV

This is why I said it depends on what Mayo is now chasing. If it is GC and it is time it is after he will attack early as will his team. LA can not afford to let him go and this could weaken him and his team in defending the lead. If he is just after stages then I agree it will not benefit the others.

The TTs could go either way between LA and JU, a bad day for either and they could lose time.

ceeberjeebers

I wonder how many people are going to call in sick to work on the Alpe D'huez TT day...

__________________
Chris

Frihed89

T-Mobil can try to defeat USPS by setting a blistering pace in the flat parts and early-climbing parts of each stage so as to diminish Armstrong's abilities in the steeper sections and give the advantage to Ulrich's more even power motor. They do not need to attack on the steep parts. There are plenty of other mountain riders on other teams.

Jan can take care of himself in the TTs.

I think USPS has prepared for this.

gntlmn

Ullrich was interviewed on Monday, and he said that he could cry under his sheets every day about the 55 second gap Armstrong has. But he will not do that. Instead, he will look for every opportunity to recover the lost time. He also said that he wants to attack early, not to wait. He said that he isn't just focusing on Lance because he's not sure that it will be a duel between him and Lance; it might go to Tyler Hamilton or Ivan Basso. He says Lance looks strong, but he doesn't want to underestimate the other riders who may also be a threat.

I would be tuning in tomorrow to what may be the hardest day of the Tour. It has steep mountains, even though they are not as long as the ones on Friday's stage, but the stage length is the longest in the Tour. It ought to be interesting.

musette

Stage length is longest in tour, but the mountains are earlier than in certain other stages.

limerickman

I did this stage on Sunday (the Etape du Tour) and I predict that the whole peloton will shatter (at least this is what happened to me !!).
We'll see if the manage to beat my time to St Flour !