The Next 5 Time Tour de France Champion

gntlmn

I don't think either of them are good in the mountains, are they? Sure, Cancellara is good on the flats--Voelker too. But those that go on to become Tour champions have to show some promise in the mountains.

gntlmn

How about this guy Vladimir Karpets? He's 6'3" and weighs 174 lbs. and was this year's white jersey winner at the 2004 TdF. He came up from 100th place last year to 13th this year. That's quite a jump, and he was still only less than 24 years old. I see he lost quite a bit of time to Armstrong on a couple of mountain stages, but not too much on the others. I think the big gap on stage 5 was Voeckler et al's breakaway stage.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/cycling/riders/page/400261

and here's a photo, to give you an idea of his stature--even taller than Indurain who also rode for Banesto. Indurain is 6'2" and weighed 172 lbs.

http://home.scarlet.be/~vanderb1/ka...1/pages/07.html

craigstanton

Well, this is an interesting question. But, look back for a moment and think of young Ullrich compared to young Armstrong. People are still obviously debating about the likelihood and physical possibility of someone built like Lance was to come back and dominate as he has. Just goes to show you -- reality is bizarre. The expected rarely happens, and it is really difficult to say what will happen to guys like Karpets, Cunego, Scanlon, etc . . . Who will be the next 5 time tour winner? Maybe he is laying around in a hospital bed somewhere with a chemo drip and no hair, or maybe some 21 year old unknown is recovering from a freak hunting accident in a hsopital room somewhere . . . and he'll show up next year to dominate the tour. Things at least this strange have happened

gntlmn

That's a good point. I have wondered at times whether a two year break from competition might be a help, considering both Lemond and Armstrong.

philoakley

How about Iban Mayo (i think he's 26 or 27)? He had a bad tour this year but he has a good climbing pedigree and has improved his time trialing. That said, he will have to win the next five in a row but it has been pointed out that Armstrong was a winner three months short of his 28th birthday.

thebluetrain

What about Ivan Basso? I think he has a shot at some wins in future Tours. He is the only one to stay with Armstrong in the mountains. If he can improve his TT, he's got a chance at some wins.

philoakley

Basso is good and will definitely achieve more podiums in my view. My only concern is that given that his time trialing is relatively weak he needs to attack in the mountains. I've never seen him launch a serious attack and therefore raise the question whether he is a natural follower rather than an attacker. If so, I'm not sure he'll win the Tour.

craigstanton

But, consider Armstrong's performance in the most recent Tour. How many times did he actually attack?? This year's performance suggests that one can win definitively without attacking much at all -- IF one is strong enough in the mountains and TT stages. So, the obvious tactical approach for Basso is to work even harder on his TT training. If he can reach a level where he can rival the top TT riders . . . then he'd certainly be a very big threat.

philoakley

Your point is well made. However, I reckon that Basso might have to become the best time trialist on the tour to win and I just don't see that happening. It seems that the best time trialists have an inherent ability that the natural climbers cannot quite match no matter how hard they try.

As an additional question: Do you think that Kloden can beat Basso again next year given hit superior TT ability? (no doubt the Tour route will impact on this answer which we don't know yet)

thebluetrain

I dont think he needs to become the best time trialist. He just needs to improve his TT enough to stay close to the top contenders. Of course everyone wants to win a TT but after that the goal is to turn in good time that keeps you in contention. Basso also faded at the end of this years Tour so he obviously needs to work on his stamina.

gntlmn

I don't know about Mayo. He's tested positive for cocaine before, and maybe that's where he gets that bragging attitude about how well he'll do in the Tour. I'd say he'll have a few more good days, like his Dauphine Libere climb this year. I don't know about the Tour de France. Before this year's tour, I was seriously considering him as a contender. But now, he's going to have to prove himself again to me. He's not a youngster like Vladimir Karpets.

gntlmn

Kloden will be 31 next year, Basso 27. Strictly from an age perspective without considering any other factors, Basso has the advantage on improving in the Tour. But of course, there are other factors, not least of which is the makeup of the team.

gntlmn

Damiano Conego is 22 and Vladimir Karpets is 23 (almost 24). They both have a chance of winning 5 Tours after the reigning champion fades. Armstrong can win the next 3 in a row, and then one of these 2 might win the following 5 Tours and still be in their primes. The rest--Basso, Mayo, Kloden, Ullrich, etc--are probably too old to do so if Armstrong keeps winning.

thebluetrain

Good point.