horse vs bicycle vs car

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Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.

In article <1f96cfd8-1918-4922-8247-93161a2bc94b@m1g2000pre.googlegroups.com>,
"runcyclexcski@yahoo.com" <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> writes:
> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
> you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
> energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
> 700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.

You'd be surprised by how much cargo can be
hauled by bicycle.


cheers,
Tom

--
Nothing is safe from me.
I'm really at:
tkeats curlicue vcn dot bc dot ca

Tom Keats wrote:
> In article <1f96cfd8-1918-4922-8247-93161a2bc94b@m1g2000pre.googlegroups.com>,
> "runcyclexcski@yahoo.com" <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> writes:
>> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
>> you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
>> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
>> energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
>> 700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.
>
> You'd be surprised by how much cargo can be
> hauled by bicycle.
>
How many cyclists can be fed by one horse? ;)

--
Tom Sherman - Holstein-Friesland Bovinia
The weather is here, wish you were beautiful

On Apr 15, 4:02 am, "runcyclexc...@yahoo.com"
<runcyclexc...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
> you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
> energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
> 700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.

Not a huge horse fan. The elephant thing didn't work out well for
Bart. I'm thinking a llama. http://tinyurl.com/4k22pb. A grey and
white one. Like this one: http://tinyurl.com/4jkgar. Or maybe a
brown fluffy one? http://tinyurl.com/3z5u53.

This one, cute as he may be, is angry. Llama with ears back = angry
llame, beware bruising spit and step away! http://tinyurl.com/28gjsk

If the llama is a bit too big, there's always the Alpaca.
http://tinyurl.com/5yj8yu

runcyclexcski@yahoo.com <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
> you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
> energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
> 700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.

I'm not sure exactly how many acres of ground it takes to supply the
food needs of one horse, but I'll bet it's three or four at least. It we
suddenly had, say, 100,000,000 horses, we'd need a heckuva lot of farm
land to feed them all.
Next thing we'd need is a way to collect and dispose of all the horses'
"exhaust." We might be able to derive some methane from it, but we'd have
to get it off the streets first. Anybody want the job?
Finally, we'd have to find a way to dispose of all those horses when
they died. A major change in our national dietary aversions, I suppose.
Personally, I suspect we'd have plenty of gas if we'd just quit wasting
it.

Bill

__o |Weaning our nation from fossil fuels should be understood as
_`\(,_ |the most patriotic policy to which we can commit ourselves.
(_)/ (_) | -Robert Redford

I am not a big fan of horses, but I am just curious what would happen
in the worst case scenario - i.e. if the Olduvai theory by Duncan
works to a certain extent. After all, historically, we are only ~100
years away from the times when the horse was the main way of
transportation (plus railroads, which we have happily got rid of), and
oil was arguably what allowed us to switch.

> I'm not sure exactly how many acres of ground it takes to supply the
> food needs of one horse, but I'll bet it's three or four at least. It we
> suddenly had, say, 100,000,000 horses, we'd need a heckuva lot of farm
> land to feed them all.

Is it that much? I saw a number that UK had ~25 mln horses before the
industrial revolution

> Next thing we'd need is a way to collect and dispose of all the horses'
> "exhaust." We might be able to derive some methane from it, but we'd have
> to get it off the streets first. Anybody want the job?

I did not say it would be easy :)

> Finally, we'd have to find a way to dispose of all those horses when
> they died. A major change in our national dietary aversions, I suppose.
> Personally, I suspect we'd have plenty of gas if we'd just quit wasting
> it.

I hear you.

> > You'd be surprised by how much cargo can be
> > hauled by bicycle.

Yes, by a fit cyclist. if you just took your butt out of your SUV
seat, much less.

runcyclexcski@yahoo.com <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> wrote:

> years away from the times when the horse was the main way of
> transportation (plus railroads, which we have happily got rid of), and
> oil was arguably what allowed us to switch.

Rail is the second most fuel-efficient form of transportation. If we
want to conserve petroleum, we should fly less, drive less, truck less,
and use trains more. The only way of getting around that's more
fuel-efficient is the noble bicycle.

Bill

__o | The bicycle is the noblest invention of mankind.
_`\(,_ | -- William Saroyan
(_)/ (_) |

On Apr 15, 4:38 pm, D_Frumiou...@ndersnat.ch wrote:
> runcyclexc...@yahoo.com <runcyclexc...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > years away from the times when the horse was the main way of
> > transportation (plus railroads, which we have happily got rid of), and
> > oil was arguably what allowed us to switch.
>
> Rail is the second most fuel-efficient form of transportation. If we
> want to conserve petroleum, we should fly less, drive less, truck less,
> and use trains more. The only way of getting around that's more
> fuel-efficient is the noble bicycle.
>
> Bill
>
> __o | The bicycle is the noblest invention of mankind.
> _`\(,_ | -- William Saroyan
> (_)/ (_) |

The comparable unit of measurements was a Cargo pound mile per gallon
of Bio Diesel (vegetable oil).
1 Cargo pound mile is hauling 1 pound of cargo 1 mile.
Vegetable oil can be used in Diesel engines, and contains about 35,000
dietary calories per gallon.

Rough approximations
A hummer could haul 1000 pounds of cargo 10 miles per gallon = 10,000
cargo pound miles per gallon.
A rabbit could haul 500 pounds of cargo 35 miles per gallon = 17,500
cargo pound miles per gallon.
A bicyclist can haul 100 pounds of cargo 500 miles per gallon =
100,000 cargo pound miles per gallon. (guess)
A bicyclist can haul himself and 50 pounds of cargo 1000 miles per
gallon = 50,000 cargo pound miles per gallon. (10 days 100 miles a day
on tour, 3500 calories a day)
A semi can haul 50,000 pounds of cargo 9 miles per gallon = 450,000
cargo pound miles per gallon.
A one engine train can haul 25 cars of 200,000 pounds of cargo 0.5
miles per gallon = 2,500,000 cargo pound miles per gallon.

On Tue, 15 Apr 2008 01:02:28 -0700, runcyclexcski@yahoo.com wrote:

> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and you
> wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical energy)?
> 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the 700W. A
> bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.

I doubt horses would become important again. They're too labor
intensive, space intensive, hungry, and dirty. Instead we'd probably have
more electric vehicles.

Matt O.

> I doubt horses would become important again. They're too labor
> intensive, space intensive, hungry, and dirty. Instead we'd probably have
> more electric vehicles.
>

.... assuming that existing efficient (30%) solar panels become ~100
times cheaper to make in any foreseeable time.

> A one engine train can haul 25 cars of 200,000 pounds of cargo 0.5
> miles per gallon = 2,500,000 cargo pound miles per gallon.

I am with you on the trains. Just need to rebuilt all the railroads
that car manufacturers have cannibalized.

On Apr 16, 2:17 pm, "runcyclexc...@yahoo.com"
<runcyclexc...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > I doubt horses would become important again. They're too labor
> > intensive, space intensive, hungry, and dirty. Instead we'd probably have
> > more electric vehicles.
>
> ... assuming that existing efficient (30%) solar panels become ~100
> times cheaper to make in any foreseeable time.

It could happen, they may not end up much cheaper (at least at first)
but they're so much better than current PV panels it might not matter:

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1865651.htm
http://www.originenergy.com.au/1233/SLIVER-technology

In article <fu25af$rtg$1@registered.motzarella.org>,
Tom Sherman <sunsetss0003@REMOVETHISyahoo.com> writes:
> Tom Keats wrote:
>> In article <1f96cfd8-1918-4922-8247-93161a2bc94b@m1g2000pre.googlegroups.com>,
>> "runcyclexcski@yahoo.com" <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> writes:
>>> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
>>> you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
>>> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
>>> energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
>>> 700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.
>>
>> You'd be surprised by how much cargo can be
>> hauled by bicycle.
>>
> How many cyclists can be fed by one horse? ;)

Perhaps not as many as can be fed by one ox,
which in some respects can also be a superior
draught animal. I figure the meat would need
a ~lot~ of marinating/tenderizing, though.
Especially the load-bearing tissues.


cheers,
Tom

--
Nothing is safe from me.
I'm really at:
tkeats curlicue vcn dot bc dot ca

Mike A Schwab <mike.a.schwab@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Apr 15, 4:38 pm, D_Frumiou...@ndersnat.ch wrote:
> > runcyclexc...@yahoo.com <runcyclexc...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > > years away from the times when the horse was the main way of
> > > transportation (plus railroads, which we have happily got rid of), and
> > > oil was arguably what allowed us to switch.
> >
> > Rail is the second most fuel-efficient form of transportation. If we
> > want to conserve petroleum, we should fly less, drive less, truck less,
> > and use trains more. The only way of getting around that's more
> > fuel-efficient is the noble bicycle.
> >
> > Bill
> >
> > __o | The bicycle is the noblest invention of mankind.
> > _`\(,_ | -- William Saroyan
> > (_)/ (_) |

> The comparable unit of measurements was a Cargo pound mile per gallon
> of Bio Diesel (vegetable oil).
> 1 Cargo pound mile is hauling 1 pound of cargo 1 mile.
> Vegetable oil can be used in Diesel engines, and contains about 35,000
> dietary calories per gallon.

> Rough approximations
> A hummer could haul 1000 pounds of cargo 10 miles per gallon = 10,000
> cargo pound miles per gallon.
> A rabbit could haul 500 pounds of cargo 35 miles per gallon = 17,500
> cargo pound miles per gallon.
> A bicyclist can haul 100 pounds of cargo 500 miles per gallon =
> 100,000 cargo pound miles per gallon. (guess)
> A bicyclist can haul himself and 50 pounds of cargo 1000 miles per
> gallon = 50,000 cargo pound miles per gallon. (10 days 100 miles a day
> on tour, 3500 calories a day)
> A semi can haul 50,000 pounds of cargo 9 miles per gallon = 450,000
> cargo pound miles per gallon.
> A one engine train can haul 25 cars of 200,000 pounds of cargo 0.5
> miles per gallon = 2,500,000 cargo pound miles per gallon.

Interesting numbers, even if they're just wild-eyed guesses. The next
consideration, though, isn't the mode of transportation, but what we haul
and where we haul it.
There is a brand of soup, for instance, that you can buy in stores in
my area. It's made locally, and quite tasty. But before you can buy it,
the store has to stock it, and they have to buy it from a distributor 750
miles away, even though it's made just 40 miles away. So the stuff
travels 1500 miles to get back to nearly where it was made before you can
buy it.
That is actually typical. The average food item is consumed 1700 miles
from where it was made. Here in Salt Lake City, for instance, some of the
baked goods for sale in our stores are made in Denver, Los Angeles, and
even Kansas City.
Then there is Fiji Water, a bottled drinking water that is hauled all
the way across the Pacific Ocean to shelves in American stores. How's
that for a waste in a world where you can buy a Brita filter at any Home
Depot? Got a pound mile per gallon for a freighter full of water?
And of course, there's the old Census Bureau finding that half of all
car trips are under five miles.
There are three ways to cut fuel usage: haul less, haul more
efficiently, and don't haul it so far.


Bill

__o | I used to think that I was cool, running around on fossil fuel
_`\(,_ | Until I saw what I was doing was driving down the road to ruin.
(_)/ (_) | - James Taylor

In article <1f96cfd8-1918-4922-8247-93161a2bc94b@m1g2000pre.googlegroups.com>,
"runcyclexcski@yahoo.com" <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> writes:
> Suppose the world runs out of oil overnight (instead of 20 yrs) and
> you wake to a $30.00 a gallon. Would riding horses become economically
> relevant again (horses convert "biofuel" directly into mechanical
> energy)? 1 HP is 700W. I wonder for how long a horse can sustain the
> 700W. A bicyclist can sustain 200W, but not much additional load.

As a Sagittarian, I feel compelled to put a stop
to this notion of so exploiting my half-brothers
and half-sisters.


cheers,
Tom

--
Nothing is safe from me.
I'm really at:
tkeats curlicue vcn dot bc dot ca

Tom Keats wrote:
> In article <ecfb0ed6-17ed-4be3-95e1-f7cb8013c1c5@d26g2000prg.googlegroups.com>,
> "runcyclexcski@yahoo.com" <runcyclexcski@yahoo.com> writes:
>>>> You'd be surprised by how much cargo can be
>>>> hauled by bicycle.
>> Yes, by a fit cyclist. if you just took your butt out of your SUV
>> seat, much less.
>
> I don't have an SUV.[...]

On can be a fit cyclist while sitting on one's butt in an SUV seat. For
example, here is a SUV cyclist carrying one (1) hominid as cargo:
<http://www.organicengines.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/03/NoWayEtAl.jpg>.

Here is a parked SUV, sans cyclists and hominid cargo:
<http://www.organicengines.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/BeachCab.jpg>.

--
Tom Sherman - Holstein-Friesland Bovinia
The weather is here, wish you were beautiful