FTP Question

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I need some help in determining my FTP. I have read the Coggan/Allen book and have purchased the CyclingPeaks software. My 28 day power distribution graph - the right side of the bell - (with 15 watt increments) is as follows:

285-300 - 8.4%
300-315 - 7.4%
315-330 - 6.3%
330-345 - 3.5%

To get a better feel for the FTP number I used 10 watt bins.

300-310 - 5.2%
310-320 - 4.4%
320-330 - 4.0%
330-340 - 2.6%

My training over this period has been very regimented. Interval training 3Xweek, 1 recovery day and 2 group ("long") rides. The Coggan/Allen book tells me to look for the drop on the right of the bell to get an estimate of FTP. However, the numbers above do not make it easy (for me) to figure it out.

I know, I know. I could always try a 20 minute max effort to get a feel for FTP. However, I run marathons as well and running training takes a lot of my time. Work does not help with my training either.

Any thoughts or guidance would be appreciated.

Thanks.

My training over this period has been very regimented. Interval training 3Xweek, 1 recovery day and 2 group ("long") rides. The Coggan/Allen book tells me to look for the drop on the right of the bell to get an estimate of FTP
In order to use that method, the book says your past 28 days need to be comprised of some variable-power 'spirited' rides (ie, race-paced rides with efforts above and around your threshold), so you can see where you drop off.

If you do very structured workouts for 28 days, then your power distribution will simply reflect what you *did* do and not what you *can* do.

In order to use that method, the book says your past 28 days need to be comprised of some variable-power 'spirited' rides (ie, race-paced rides with efforts above and around your threshold), so you can see where you drop off.

If you do very structured workouts for 28 days, then your power distribution will simply reflect what you *did* do and not what you *can* do.
Frenchyge- I understand and appreciate your comment - and certain of my long rides are spirited rides - however, isn't there a correlation between what I "did" do and what I "can" do. Or are we talking apples and oranges?

Interval training 3Xweek
The "drop off" method is one of the least reliable...what sort of intervals are you doing? If you're doing repeated long threshold intervals, then you've got a good FTP estimate right there. If you're doing shorter intervals with prescribed recovery duration (like 5x5M @VO2 Max w/3M recovery), then taking NP for the full set of intervals often comes pretty close to FTP.

Frenchyge- I understand and appreciate your comment - and certain of my long rides are spirited rides - however, isn't there a correlation between what I "did" do and what I "can" do. Or are we talking apples and oranges?
For example, if I do 4 weeks of moderate rides at ~75% of FTP, then I will see a strong drop-off in my power distribution above that power level. That doesn't mean that I couldn't have ridden harder, just that I didn't because that's not what my training plan called for. See what I mean?

In order to look for that drop-off, you should have some really hard rides in there where you had periods above FTP, but had to back off because you were unable or unwilling to sustain it. If that's already the case with the numbers that you've posted, then the strong drop between 330-340w would be a good place to start, and you can refine that as things progress.

The "drop off" method is one of the least reliable...what sort of intervals are you doing? If you're doing repeated long threshold intervals, then you've got a good FTP estimate right there. If you're doing shorter intervals with prescribed recovery duration (like 5x5M @VO2 Max w/3M recovery), then taking NP for the full set of intervals often comes pretty close to FTP. (ftp://ftp.)
One day a week of 2x20 in L4 on 2-3 minutes rest, one day a week of 4x10 on 2 minutes rest and one day a week of 4-5 x 5 minutes of L5 on equal rest. I mix some sprint training in during the week.

One day a week of 2x20 in L4 on 2-3 minutes rest, one day a week of 4x10 on 2 minutes rest and one day a week of 4-5 x 5 minutes of L5 on equal rest. I mix some sprint training in during the week.
Then I'd say you have two data points better than the drop-off method. AP for the combined 2x20 workout (on a day you're "good"), or NP for the full 45 minute set of L5 intervals.