Stage 10- Limoges-St Flour

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This is a big stage with a 1st cat, 2 2nd cat and numerous third cat climbs and where we could see some intentions of the teams. It's Bastille day and the French are traditionally up for it and I expect Virenque to try and get away early to rack up the KoM points and possibly go for the stage. I think Eusketel should make an attack against USP and send someone down the road(Zubeldia?) to start to put pressure on USP as BLB will not be strong enough to control the race from now on and the pressure will be on USP to control. The next 4 stages Mayo has got to start cutting the gap if he has any GC ambitions and they should be aggressive in order to wear USP down. I expect JU and TH to be happy with sitting on LA wheel for the time being but it should be a fascinating next few days.

Excuse my Ignorance (I'm new to cycling) but could you please define 1st, 2nd and 3rd cat climbs?

Thanks,
David

A 1st category climb is the second hardest climb after "hors categorie." 2nd category is third hardest, etc.

Not sure exactly how they are graded, but I think it primarily has to do with length and gradient of the climb. Quality of road, wideness of road, amount of exposure, etc. probably also add to this.

A 1st category climb is the second hardest climb after "hors categorie." 2nd category is third hardest, etc.

Not sure exactly how they are graded, but I think it primarily has to do with length and gradient of the climb. Quality of road, wideness of road, amount of exposure, etc. probably also add to this.
well, the explantion i had (and the quaintest one) was that the categories refer to what gear a citroen 2CV needed to travel in to get up the climb. i.e. 2nd cat - 2nd gear, Hors cat - the citroen couldnt make it up!.

Wonder if Le Blanc still wheels out his grandpas 2CV to categorise new climbs??:D

This is a big stage with a 1st cat, 2 2nd cat and numerous third cat climbs and where we could see some intentions of the teams. It's Bastille day and the French are traditionally up for it and I expect Virenque to try and get away early to rack up the KoM points and possibly go for the stage. I think Eusketel should make an attack against USP and send someone down the road(Zubeldia?) to start to put pressure on USP as BLB will not be strong enough to control the race from now on and the pressure will be on USP to control. The next 4 stages Mayo has got to start cutting the gap if he has any GC ambitions and they should be aggressive in order to wear USP down. I expect JU and TH to be happy with sitting on LA wheel for the time being but it should be a fascinating next few days.

I am reading your prediction with great interest - now that this stage is finished.
You were spot on with RV winning - an excellent prediction.
However I was really impressed with Voeckler today - he managed to retain the Yellow Jersey and he finished with LA.
Brioche are doing a good job defending.
A french rider in yellow - a french stage winner - and Bastille Day too !

Mayo looked tired to me today and if I were JU I would be seriously concerned
at Botero.
Did you see him today ?
he didn't look too interested did he ?

Why did Kloden take 2nd place in front of Zabel (depriving him of 4 points)? TV footage not yet shown here in Australia.

I am reading your prediction with great interest - now that this stage is finished.
You were spot on with RV winning - an excellent prediction.
However I was really impressed with Voeckler today - he managed to retain the Yellow Jersey and he finished with LA.
Brioche are doing a good job defending.
A french rider in yellow - a french stage winner - and Bastille Day too !

Mayo looked tired to me today and if I were JU I would be seriously concerned
at Botero.
Did you see him today ?
he didn't look too interested did he ?

I too was rather surprised about Voeckler. As well as he did today must be at least a little bit surprising to USPS because they didn't try to reel him in when he originally took the yellow jersey. It seems that they suspect that he cannot hang in the mountains. But this didn't seem to be the case today. Also, you probably noticed he tried to breakaway in the end, and Lance was right on him this time, finishing with the first group after Virenque but a few seconds ahead of the main peloton.

That Virenque can open up such a wide gap on the field in these mountain stages must be just a wee bit unsettling even for the seasoned veterans, even though he's not much of a time trialist. They cannot afford to let him get too many minutes on them in the mountains.

Mayo had a flat today on an uphill area. He's not having much luck this tour. I'm surprised he didn't make a move today. Maybe he won't do much more this Tour. But as they say, it's still a long way to Paris.

Voeckler won the final stage of the Route du Sud which was very mountainous as well as the French Championship a couple of weeks ago so I doubt he is an unknown quantity in the peloton. Virenque will lose lots of time in the Pyrenees and Alps. His glory days are far behind him and his only hope nowdays are these death or glory attacks. It paid off for him yesterday.

Voeckler won the final stage of the Route du Sud which was very mountainous as well as the French Championship a couple of weeks ago so I doubt he is an unknown quantity in the peloton. Virenque will lose lots of time in the Pyrenees and Alps. His glory days are far behind him and his only hope nowdays are these death or glory attacks. It paid off for him yesterday.

I'm still not so sure about Voeckler though because he's at the age when he may begin to become a Tour GC contender. He's 25 now, and often riders discover their aptitude for GC within a year or so of that age. He may be being modest now, but then again, he may not know that he has already blossomed. We'll see probably on Friday, when they get into the Cat 1 climbs. Then we'll see what he's made of.

We'll see probably on Friday, when they get into the Cat 1 climbs. Then we'll see what he's made of.

Voekler's going to wilt, if not Friday, then Saturday.

Voekler's going to wilt, if not Friday, then Saturday.

Where's that picture I saw of Ullrich grinning like a cheshire cat in front of Voeckler? I think Ullrich has the same thought you do about his odds.

I am reading your prediction with great interest - now that this stage is finished.
You were spot on with RV winning - an excellent prediction.
However I was really impressed with Voeckler today - he managed to retain the Yellow Jersey and he finished with LA.
Brioche are doing a good job defending.
A french rider in yellow - a french stage winner - and Bastille Day too !

Mayo looked tired to me today and if I were JU I would be seriously concerned
at Botero.
Did you see him today ?
he didn't look too interested did he ?

Yea I've got to admit Brioche and Voeckler suprised me on this stage, I can't see them holding on to it in the Pyrenese though. I noticed though that in the initial part of the stage a big 20 strong group tried to get away and USP did a stint on the front to bring it back, it's safe to assume they don't regard RV as a GC threat. Mayo twice had to come back on the big climb but I agree he didn't look that comfortable and Botero is one of the most frustrating riders in the peloton, begs the question why no Evans.

"Real" GC contenders don't go out and solo for that many kilometers in the second week of a tour, several days before the crucial stages of Friday and Saturday. Especially in a tour that has a very difficult third week.

Also, a rider who has always coveted the polka dot jersey and who is on the verge of making history with an unprecedented seventh such jersey is not going for the GC victory. He is going for the history books, but through the polka dot route.

True, thats why I predicted RV for the stage as a number of KoM points were available and if he could get into the right move he would be allowed to go.

Where's that picture I saw of Ullrich grinning like a cheshire cat in front of Voeckler? I think Ullrich has the same thought you do about his odds.

A picture of Ullrich grinning? I'd like to see that!

Could be significant that LA fought it out to the line in Figeac to keep himself in the same split as Voeckler. I think Brioches are beginning to worry the big contenders a little bit. Personally I really want Voeckler to finish high - he's really earned the Yellow so far - and I'd hate to see him pedalling backwards in the Pyrenees...

LA fought to get into the group so that he could keep pace with JU and have the chance to get a gap, as he did, on TH, RH, etc. :D

LA fought to get into the group so that he could keep pace with JU and have the chance to get a gap, as he did, on TH, RH, etc, and so others could not gap him (i.e., so he would not lose time) :D

To LA, Brioches (including Voeckler) is only a means to have somebody waste energy, so USPS can conserve energy.

Armstrong will crack maybe not tommorow but on saturday. I think it's going to be ullrich in yellow come paris.

Armstrong will crack maybe not tommorow but on saturday. I think it's going to be ullrich in yellow come paris.

But La Mongie was where Armstrong told Heras last year to slow down and then later took the stage win when he became concerned about the GC competition. He later was interviewed and said that he did not intend to attack on La Mongie but on the next stage.

If his strategy is similar, that would be Saturday.